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Dynamic persistence in the unemployment rate of OECD countries

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  • Fosten, Jack
  • Ghoshray, Atanu

Abstract

Previous studies use a variety of increasingly advanced unit root tests to determine whether Blanchard and Summers (1986) hysteresis theory of unemployment or the classical 'natural' rate theory of Friedman (1968) and Phelps (1967, 1968) is most relevant for a given country. However these tests all specify a unit root under the null hypothesis against a stationary alternative, such as in the paper by Lee and Chang (2008), making the two theories of unemployment mutually exclusive over the sample period. This paper moves away from this dichotomy by allowing for switches between hysteresis and the natural rate theory using the recently developed test of Leybourne, Kim and Taylor (2007). We find that in countries like the United Kingdom, the natural rate theory is detected in the post-World War Two period of stabilisation: the time leading up to the seminal works of Friedman and Phelps. Hysteresis is found over the First World War and Great Depression periods, and in the period from the 1970s; a time characterised by rising trade union power. We also compute numerical measures of persistence using grid-bootstrap estimates of the autoregressive parameter, following Hansen (1999).

Suggested Citation

  • Fosten, Jack & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "Dynamic persistence in the unemployment rate of OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 948-954, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:948-954
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:105-116 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Marques, André M. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu & Troster, Victor, 2017. "Unemployment persistence in OECD countries after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 105-116.
    3. Vuyo Pikoko & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Is there hysteresis in South African unemployment? Evidence form the post-recessionary period," Working Papers 1803, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Jan 2018.
    4. Kim, Il-Ho & Muntaner, Carles & Vahid Shahidi, Faraz & Vives, Alejandra & Vanroelen, Christophe & Benach, Joan, 2012. "Welfare states, flexible employment, and health: A critical review," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 99-127.
    5. Ghoshray, Atanu & Ordóñez, Javier & Sala, Hector, 2016. "Euro, crisis and unemployment: Youth patterns, youth policies?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 442-453.
    6. Furuoka, Fumitaka, 2014. "Unemployment hysteresis in Central Asia," MPRA Paper 60323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ghoshray, Atanu & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2015. "Centurial evidence of breaks in the persistence of unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 74-76.
    8. Furuoka, Fumitaka, 2014. "Hysteresis in European labour market," MPRA Paper 60946, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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