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Unemployment Persistence in OECD Countries after the Great Recession


  • André M. Marques


  • Gilberto Tadeu Lima, Victor Troster


The 2008 economic downturn in the United States resulted in a wave of contractionary effects across many OECD countries. This paper investigates the pattern of the unemployment persistence in the United States and other 28 OECD countries before and after the Great Recession. To detect possible changes in the pattern of unemployment persistence, we employ a mean bias-corrected estimation of the persistence parameter with a rolling window of five years. In addition, we estimate the most likely date of change in the trend function of unemployment to test whether there was any significant change in the pattern of unemployment persistence after the Great Recession. We find significant evidence of a structural break and hysteresis in unemployment rates, with a persistence parameter close to unity, across the United States and other 28 OECD countries. Besides, bootstrap permutation tests show that all half-lives and impulse response functions have significantly changed after the Great Recession. Therefore, our findings call for structural reforms aimed at improving labor market performance, to prevent upward shifts in unemployment across OECD countries from becoming permanent.

Suggested Citation

  • André M. Marques & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, Victor Troster, 2016. "Unemployment Persistence in OECD Countries after the Great Recession," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2016_16, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2016wpecon16

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    Cited by:

    1. Pikoko, Vuyokazi & Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Is there hysteresis in South African unemployment? Evidence from the post-recessionary period," MPRA Paper 83962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. repec:eee:ecmode:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:291-300 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Unemployment rate; Unit root tests; Structural breaks; Half-lives;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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