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Testing for hysteresis in unemployment in OECD countries. New evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks†

This paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 OECD countries covering the period 1956-2001. The tests exploit the cross-section variations of the series, and additionally, allow for a different number of endogenous breakpoints in the unemployment series. The critical values are simulated based on our specific panel sizes and time periods. The findings stress the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks in the series and give support to the natural-rate hypothesis of unemployment for the majority of the countries analyzed.

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Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Andaluces in its series Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces with number 2004/40.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2004_40
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  1. Roed, Knut, 1997. " Hysteresis in Unemployment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 389-418, December.
  2. John M. Roberts & Norman J. Morin, 1999. "Is hysteresis important for U.S. unemployment?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn, 1995. "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Econometrics 9508002, EconWPA.
  4. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  5. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
  6. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  7. Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Tomas del Barrio Castro & Enrique Lopez Bazo, 2003. "Breaking the panels. An application to the GDP per capita," Working Papers in Economics 97, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  8. Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2000. "Unemployment Hysteresis in the US and the EU: a Panel Data Approach," Studies in Economics 0006, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  9. Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 942, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-50, July.
  11. Vogelsang, T.J. & Perron, P., 1994. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," Cahiers de recherche 9422, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  12. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
  13. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
  14. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Working Papers 1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  16. Edmund S. Phelps, 1999. "Behind This Structural Boom: The Role of Asset Valuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 63-68, May.
  17. Roed, Knut, 1996. "Unemployment Hysteresis--Macro Evidence from 16 OECD Countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 589-600.
  18. Arestis, Philip & Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, Iris, 1999. "Unit roots and structural breaks in OECD unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 149-156, November.
  19. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  20. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
  21. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
  22. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  23. Brunello, Giorgio, 1990. "Hysteresis and "The Japanese Unemployment Problem": A Preliminary Investigation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 483-500, July.
  24. Chihwa Kao & Suzanne McCoskey, 1997. "A Residual-Based Test Of The Null Of Cointegration In Panel Data," Econometrics 9711002, EconWPA.
  25. Ewing, Bradley T. & Wunnava, Phanindra V., 2001. "Unit roots and structural breaks in North American unemployment rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 273-282, November.
  26. Kåre Johansen, . "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from Norwegian Counties," Working Paper Series 0602, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 20 Aug 2002.
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