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The unemployment structure of the US States

  • Clemente, Jesus

    ()

  • Lanaspa, Luis

    ()

  • Montañés, Antonio

    ()

This paper analyses the time series properties of the unemployment rates of the 50 US States, as well as the global rate of the USA. Our results, based on the use of ADF-type tests, show that the inclusion of some breaks is vital in order to reduce the persistence on these rates. Thus, we can reject the unit root null hypothesis versus a double mean-shifted stationary alternative for 46 States and for the US total rate. We also find that the behavior of this latter rate is not congruent with that of the States, implying the presence of some aggregation problems which have not been commonly accounted in the literature.

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File URL: http://www-sre.wu-wien.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa02/cd-rom/papers/081.pdf
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Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa02p081.

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Date of creation: Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p081
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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
  2. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  3. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
  4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Phelps, Edmund S & Zoega, Gylfi, 1998. "Natural-Rate Theory and OECD Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 782-801, May.
  7. Roed, Knut, 1996. "Unemployment Hysteresis--Macro Evidence from 16 OECD Countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 589-600.
  8. James Payne & Bradley Ewing & Erik George, 1999. "Time series dynamics of US State unemployment rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1503-1510.
  9. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  10. Nickell, Stephen, 1998. "Unemployment: Questions and Some Answers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 802-16, May.
  11. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  12. Coakley Jerry & Fuertes Ana-María & Zoega Gylfi, 2001. "Evaluating the Persistence and Structuralist Theories of Unemployment from a Nonlinear Perspective," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-25, October.
  13. John M. Roberts & Norman J. Morin, 1999. "Is hysteresis important for U.S. unemployment?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February.
  15. Arestis, Philip & Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, Iris, 1999. "Unit roots and structural breaks in OECD unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 149-156, November.
  16. Zoega, Gylfi, 1994. "Unemployment Persistence: Does the Size of the Shock Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  18. Song, Frank M & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from 48 U.S. States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 235-43, April.
  19. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  20. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
  21. Montañés, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1999. "The asymptotic behaviour of the Dickey-Fuller tests under the crash hypothesis," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 81-89, March.
  22. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  23. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  24. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
  25. Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 1997. "The Dispersion of US State Unemployment Rates: The Role of Market and Non-market Equilibrium Factors," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 593-606.
  26. Monta s, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Effect Of A Shift In The Trend Function On Dickey Fuller Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 355-363, June.
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