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Unemployment hysteresis in Central Asia

Listed author(s):
  • Furuoka, Fumitaka

Unemployment hysteresis is an important but rather controversial issue in applied economics because the existence of hysteresis in unemployment rate poses a challenge to a central building-block of macroeconomic theory. The current paper chooses five Central Asian countries, namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, as a case study to examine the unemployment hysteresis for the period of 1991-2012. The number of observation is 22. In order to overcome the insufficient data, this paper uses the Bootstrap method to estimate the critical values (Park, 2003). For the purpose of empirical analysis, this paper uses the SURADF tests (Breuer et al., 2002) and the Fourier ADF tests (Enders and Lee, 2012). The univariate unit root tests indicates that unemployment rate in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan can be the stationary process and unemployment rates in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan can be the unit root process. The panel unit root indicates that unemployment rate in the Central Asia can be the stationary process. Overall, the current study concludes that unemployment rates in Central Asia can be best described as stationary process in line with the natural rate hypothesis.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 60323.

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Date of creation: 30 Nov 2014
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60323
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  7. Joon Y. Park, 2003. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1845-1895, November.
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  12. Tsangyao Chang & Kuei-Chiu Lee & Chien-Chung Nieh & Ching-Chun Wei, 2005. "An empirical note on testing hysteresis in unemployment for ten European countries: panel SURADF approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(14), pages 881-886.
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  16. Diego Romero-Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2007. "Unit Root Tests, Persistence, and the Unemployment Rate of The U.S. States," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 698-716, January.
  17. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678-678.
  18. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2004. "Hysteresis vs. natural rate of unemployment: new evidence for OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 413-417, September.
  19. Dimitris K. Christopoulos, 2007. "Unemployment hysteresis in EU countries: what do we really know about it?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 80-89, May.
  20. Russell Smyth, 2003. "Unemployment Hysteresis in Australian States and Territories: Evidence from Panel Data Unit Root Tests," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 36(2), pages 181-192.
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