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Validity of Unemployment Hysteresis: The Most Fragile Five Developing Countries

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  • Ömer AKKUŞ
  • Seher Gülşah TOPUZ

Abstract

This study investigates the movement of unemployment for five most fragile developing countries including Turkey over the period 1980-2016. For this purpose, which one of the three approaches within the theoretical literature “natural unemployment rate hypothesis”, “unemployment hysteresis” or “structuralist theory of unemployment” is valid is examined using traditional unit root and unit root tests allowing for structural breaks. Hypothesis of unemployment hysteresis is valid for five most fragile developing countries according to both results of traditional unit root and unit root test allowing for structural breaks. Namely, unemployment rate does not fluctuate around natural unemployment rate and therefore the results indicate that shocks do not create temporary effects on unemployment but permanent. Governments in five most fragile developing countries are expected to actively intervene in the policy on unemployment since the unemployment rate does not tend to return to its natural level.

Suggested Citation

  • Ömer AKKUŞ & Seher Gülşah TOPUZ, 2019. "Validity of Unemployment Hysteresis: The Most Fragile Five Developing Countries," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(39).
    • Handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:190104
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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