Velocity Effect On Inflationary Growth of Turkey: Evidence From Co-integration Analysis and Granger's Causality Test
The Turkish economy has experienced high and persistent inflation rates in the last two decades. This inflation has persisted despite many unsuccessful stabilization policies, which have caused volatility in macro-economic indicators. The main aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of velocity on inflationary trend in Turkey over the period between 1996 and 2001. We assumed that there is a direct relationship between the two factors. However, velocity is not the major cause of inflation. The integration and co-integration tests have been adopted on monthly time series data to test the validity of the model by adding some control variables. Results show that velocity has a weak and negative effect on the inflationary growth of Turkey during this period. The effects of other control variables on inflation growth have also been tested. Some aspects of this linear relationship have been obtained by Granger’s Causality Test.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Publication status:||Published in The Indian Economic Journal 1.50(2002): pp. 48-54|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laura Papi & G. C. Lim, 1997. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 97/170, International Monetary Fund.
- Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-277, August.
- Miller, Stephen M, 1991. "Monetary Dynamics: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modeling," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 139-154, May.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
- Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2001.
"Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation,"
AccessEcon, vol. 28(21), pages 1.
- Kibritçioğlu, Aykut, 2002. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 43-76.
- Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2001. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," Macroeconomics 0107002, EconWPA, revised 10 Oct 2001.
- Metin, Kivilcim, 1995. "An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 513-531, November.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- De Santis, R., 1993. "An Error Correction Monetary Model Explaining the Inflationary Process in Turkey," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 418, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- C. Emre Alper & Murat Ucer, 1998. "Some Observations on Turkish Inflation: A ''Random Walk'' Down the Past Decade," Working Papers 1998/02, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:259. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.