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Testing for “contagion” of the subprime crisis on the Middle East and North African stock markets : A Markov Switching EGARCH approach

  • Wajih Khallouli

    ()

    (Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales de Tunis - Université de Tunis)

  • René Sandretto

    ()

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - École Normale Supérieure - Lyon)

In this paper, we investigate whether the recent financial turmoil which arose in the United States has contaminated the Middle East and North African countries (MENA). In contrast to Lagoard-Segot and Lucey (2009), we try to identify the existence of pure contagion (Masson, 1999) rather than shift-contagion (Rigobon, 2003). Then, we explicitly define financial “contagion” in accordance with Eichengreen et al. (1996) and we extend the Cerra and Saxena (2002) methodology by using a Markov-Switching EGARCH model introduced by Henry (2009) in order to identify contaminated MENA stock markets. Our results provide evidence of a persistence of recession characterised by low mean/high variance regimes which coincides with the third phases of the subprime crisis. In addition, there is evidence of mean and volatility contagion in MENA stock markets caused by the US stock market.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Publication status: Published, Journal of Economic Integration, 2012, 27, 1, pp. 134-166
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00522683
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