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Shift-contagion Vulnerability in the MENA Stock Markets

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  • Thomas Lagoarde-Segot
  • Brian M. Lucey

Abstract

Abstract As part of a broader financial development reform agenda, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries have successfully expanded and revitalised their stock markets over the last decade. Whereas previous contributions have investigated efficiency, international integration and portfolio diversification opportunities, very little is known about these markets' vulnerability to external financial crises. In this paper, we investigate shift-contagion to the MENA region using a comprehensive battery of econometric tests for a number of different crises episodes: the 1997 Asian crisis, the 1998 Russian virus and its Brazilian sequel, the 2000 Turkish collapse, the 9/11 turmoil, the 2001 Argentinean crisis, the 2002 Enron/WorldCom scandal and the 2007-09 global financial crisis. We found that Turkey, Israel and Jordan were the most vulnerable markets over the 1997-2009 period, followed by Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt and Lebanon. Our results also highlight heterogeneous but increasing levels of sensitivity to external financial shocks, especially during the recent global financial crisis. From a financial point of view, this suggests that MENA-based diversification strategies may be relatively inefficient during periods of global turmoil. From an economic point of view, our results suggest that stock market development also involves potential destabilisation costs. This issue should be acknowledged and addressed by policymakers if these countries are to ensure a smooth transition towards international financial integration. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Lagoarde-Segot & Brian M. Lucey, 2009. "Shift-contagion Vulnerability in the MENA Stock Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(10), pages 1478-1497, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:32:y:2009:i:10:p:1478-1497
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Khallouli, Wajih & Sandretto, René, 2012. "Testing for “Contagion” of the Subprime Crisis on the Middle East and North African Stock Markets: A Markov Switching EGARCH Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 27, pages 134-166.
    2. Wajih Khallouli & Rene Sandretto, 2011. "Testing for “Contagion” of the Subprime Crisis on the Middle East And North African Stock Markets: A Markov Switching EGARCH Approach," Working Papers 609, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 Jan 2011.
    3. Ankudinov, Andrei & Ibragimov, Rustam & Lebedev, Oleg, 2017. "Sanctions and the Russian stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 150-162.
    4. Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas, 2013. "Does stock market development always improve firm-level financing? Evidence from Tunisia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 183-208.
    5. Ahmed El Ghini & Youssef Saidi, 2015. "Financial market contagion during the global financial crisis: evidence from the Moroccan stock market," International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1), pages 78-95.
    6. Smimou, Kamal & Karabegovic, Amela, 2010. "On the relationship between economic freedom and equity returns in the emerging markets: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 119-151, June.
    7. Thomas Lagoarde-Segot, 2013. "Does stock market development always improve firm-level financing? Evidence from Tunisia," Post-Print hal-01500865, HAL.
    8. Smimou, K. & Khallouli, W., 2016. "On the intensity of liquidity spillovers in the Eurozone," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 388-405.
    9. Neaime, Simon, 2016. "Financial crises and contagion vulnerability of MENA stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 14-35.
    10. Eli Bouri & Andre Eid & Imad Kachacha, 2014. "The Dynamic Behaviour and Determinants of Linkages among Middle Eastern and North African Stock Exchanges," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(1), pages 1-22, March.

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