IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/14518.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did Mergers Help Japanese Mega-Banks Avoid Failure? Analysis of the Distance to Default of Banks

Author

Listed:
  • Kimie Harada
  • Takatoshi Ito

Abstract

In the late 1990s, several large Japanese banks failed for the first time in its postwar history. As the financial environment was deteriorating further, several remaining banks decided to merge among themselves, presumably, to make their operations more efficient to avoid failures. This paper defines, calculates and analyzes the distance to default (DD), a concept of credit risk in corporate finance, of Japanese large banks. The DD helps us to answer a question whether mergers in the late 1990s and 2000s made the merged banks financially more robust as intended. The novelty of the paper is to develop a method of analyzing the DD for banks that experience a merger, and to apply the method to the Japanese banking data. Our findings include: (1) A merged bank fundamentally inherits financial soundness of pre-merged banks, without adding special value from the merger. A merger of sound (unsound) banks produced a sound (unsound, respectively) merged financial institution; and (2) In some cases, a merged bank experienced a negative DD right after the merger. The findings are consistent with a view that a primary objective of a merger was to take advantage of the perceived too-big-to-fail policy, rather than to pursue a radical reform. Another interpretation is that mergers with intention of enhancing efficiency resulted in failed implementation of true operational efficiency, such as quick integration of computer operation systems and elimination of duplicating branches.

Suggested Citation

  • Kimie Harada & Takatoshi Ito, 2008. "Did Mergers Help Japanese Mega-Banks Avoid Failure? Analysis of the Distance to Default of Banks," NBER Working Papers 14518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14518
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14518.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark M. Spiegel & Nobuyoshi Yamori, 2004. "The Evolution Of Bank Resolution Policies In Japan: Evidence From Market Equity Values," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 115-132.
    2. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    3. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S., 2001. "Determinants of the Japan premium: actions speak louder than words," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 283-305, April.
    4. Gropp, Reint & Moerman, Gerard, 2004. "Measurement of contagion in banks' equity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-459, April.
    5. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    6. Hirota, Shin'ichi & Tsutsui, Yoshiro, 1999. "Do banks diversify portfolio risk? A test of the risk-cost hypothesis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 29-39, January.
    7. Takatoshi Ito & Kimie Harada, 2005. "Japan premium and stock prices: two mirrors of Japanese banking crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 195-211.
    8. Gianni De Nicolo & Alexander F. Tieman, 2006. "Economic Integration and Financial Stability; A European Perspective," IMF Working Papers 06/296, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Arnaud Jobert & Janet Kong & Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/33, International Monetary Fund.
    10. repec:aei:rpbook:52649 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Reint Gropp & Marco Lo Duca & Jukka Vesala, 2009. "Cross-Border Bank Contagion in Europe," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(1), pages 97-139, March.
    12. Thomas F. Cargill & Michael M. Hutchison & Takatoshi Ito, 1997. "The Political Economy of Japanese Monetary Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262032473, May.
    13. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    14. Amadou N Sy & Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Distance-to-Default in Banking; A Bridge Too Far?," IMF Working Papers 06/215, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Yoichi Ueno & Naohiko Baba, 2006. "Default Intensity and Expected Recovery of Japanese Banks and "Government": New Evidence from the CDS Market," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    16. Srobona Mitra & Elena H Duggar, 2007. "External Linkages and Contagion Risk in Irish Banks," IMF Working Papers 07/44, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Kaoru Hosono & Koji Sakai & Kotaro Tsuru, 2009. "Consolidation of Banks in Japan: Causes and Consequences," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 18, pages 265-309 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Srobona Mitra & Li L Ong, 2007. "Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London As a Global Financial Center," IMF Working Papers 07/74, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Calomiris, Charles W., 1999. "Gauging the efficiency of bank consolidation during a merger wave," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2-4), pages 615-621, February.
    20. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    21. Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi, 2004. "Financial regulation in Japan: a sixth year review of the Financial Services Agency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 229-243, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Sichong, 2013. "How do leverage ratios affect bank share performance during financial crises: The Japanese experience of the late 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-18.
    2. Mariassunta Giannetti & Andrei Simonov, 2013. "On the Real Effects of Bank Bailouts: Micro Evidence from Japan," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 135-167, January.
    3. Kiyotaka Nakashima & Masahiko Shibamoto & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Risk-Taking Channel of Unconventional Monetary Policies in Bank Lending," Discussion Paper Series DP2017-24, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    4. George E. Halkos & Roman Matousek & Nickolaos G. Tzeremes, 2016. "Pre-evaluating technical efficiency gains from possible mergers and acquisitions: evidence from Japanese regional banks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 47-77, January.
    5. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
    6. Nakashima, Kiyotaka, 2016. "An econometric evaluation of bank recapitalization programs with bank- and loan-level data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-24.
    7. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 161-184.
    8. Ion Lapteacru, 2016. "Income and funding structures, banking regulation and bank risk-taking: The role of ownership in Central and Eastern European banks," Working Papers hal-01301825, HAL.
    9. Martín Saldías, 2012. "Systemic risk analysis and option-based theory and information," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Harada, Kimie & Ito, Takatoshi & Takahashi, Shuhei, 2013. "Is the Distance to Default a good measure in predicting bank failures? A case study of Japanese major banks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 70-82.
    11. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Matousek, Roman & Vu, Anh Nguyet, 2016. "What is the impact of bankrupt and restructured loans on Japanese bank efficiency?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 187-202.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14518. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.