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Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking distance-to-default series

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  • Martin Saldias Zambrana

Abstract

Based on contingent claims theory, this paper develops a method to monitor systemic risk in the European banking system. Aggregated Distance-to-Default series are generated using option prices information from systemically important banks and the DJ STOXX Banks Index. These indicators provide methodological advantages in monitoring vulnerabilities in the banking system over time: 1) they capture interdependences and joint risk of distress in systemically important banks; 2) their forward-looking feature endow them with early signaling properties compared to traditional approaches in the literature and other market-based indicators; and 3) they produce simultaneously both smooth and informative long-term signals and quick and clear reaction to market distress.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Saldias Zambrana, 2010. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking distance-to-default series," Working Papers (Old Series) 1005, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1005
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-201005
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    Cited by:

    1. Pawe{l} Sakowski & Rafa{l} Sieradzki & Robert 'Slepaczuk, 2023. "Systemic risk indicator based on implied and realized volatility," Papers 2307.05719, arXiv.org.
    2. Kinateder, Harald & Choudhury, Tonmoy & Zaman, Rashid & Scagnelli, Simone D. & Sohel, Nurul, 2021. "Does boardroom gender diversity decrease credit risk in the financial sector? Worldwide evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Varotto, Simone & Zhao, Lei, 2018. "Systemic risk and bank size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 45-70.
    4. Sum Katarzyna, 2015. "Basic Indicators of Systemic Risk in the EU Banking Sector. Implications for Banking Regulation," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 47(1), pages 36-55, September.
    5. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2015. "“Sovereigns and banks in the euro area: a tale of two crises”," IREA Working Papers 201504, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2015.
    6. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 161-184.
    7. Patro, Dilip K. & Qi, Min & Sun, Xian, 2013. "A simple indicator of systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 105-116.
    8. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models:Application to peripheral euro area countries”," IREA Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    9. Michael Robson, 2015. "Default Risk Among Australian Listed Corporations," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 47-54, September.
    10. Gulamhussen, M.A. & Pinheiro, Carlos & Pozzolo, Alberto Franco, 2014. "International diversification and risk of multinational banks: Evidence from the pre-crisis period," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 30-43.
    11. Badea Irina - Raluca, 2015. "Hrm - Well-Being At Work Relation. A Case Study," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 146-154, August.
    12. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4534-4555.
    13. Lukasz Prorokowski, 2016. "Bankrupt UK cities: PD model for credit risk in sub-sovereign sector," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(6), pages 495-528.
    14. Vallascas, Francesco & Keasey, Kevin, 2012. "Bank resilience to systemic shocks and the stability of banking systems: Small is beautiful," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1745-1776.
    15. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Singh, Manish K. & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2019. "The sovereign-bank nexus in peripheral euro area: Further evidence from contingent claims analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-26.
    16. Manish K. Singh & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2014. "Forward looking banking stress in EMU countries," Working Papers 14-10, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.

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    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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