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Consistent measures of systemic risk

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  • Segoviano, Miguel
  • Espinoza, Raphael

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology to infer multivariate densities that characterize the asset values for a system of financial institutions, and applies it to quantify systemic risk. These densities, which are inferred from partial information but are consistent with the observed probabilities of distress of financial institutions, outperform parametric distributions typically employed in risk measurement. The multivariate density approach allows us to propose complementary and statistically consistent metrics of systemic risk, which we estimate using market-based data to analyze the evolution of systemic risk in Europe and the U.S., throughout the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Segoviano, Miguel & Espinoza, Raphael, 2017. "Consistent measures of systemic risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118947, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:118947
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/118947/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    density optimization; CIMDO; probabilities of default; financial stability; portfolio credit risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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