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Systemic Risk Measures

  • Solange Maria Guerra
  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak
  • Rodrigo Andrés de Souza Penaloza
  • Rodrigo César de Castro Miranda

In this paper we present systemic risk measures based on contingent claims approach, banking sector multivariate density and cluster analysis. These indicators aim to capture credit risk stress and its potential to become systemic. The proposed measures capture not only individual bank vulnerability, but also the stress dependency structure between them. Furthermore, these measures can be quite useful for identifying systematically important banks. The empirical results show that these indicators capture with considerable fidelity the moments of increasing systemic risk in the Brazilian banking sector in recent years.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps321.pdf
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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 321.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:321
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  4. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2010. "Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis," BIS Working Papers 296, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Marcos Souto & Benjamin M. Tabak & Francisco Vazquez, 2009. "Linking Financial and Macroeconomic Factors to Credit Risk Indicators of Brazilian Banks," Working Papers Series 189, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  6. Miguel Segoviano, 2006. "Consistent Information Multivariate Density Optimizing Methodology," FMG Discussion Papers dp557, Financial Markets Group.
  7. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "A Framework for Assessing the Systemic Risk of Major Financial Institutions," BIS Working Papers 281, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco de A., 2014. "Banking systemic vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 81-101.
  9. G. Bonanno & G. Caldarelli & F. Lillo & S. Micciche` & N. Vandewalle & R. N. Mantegna, 2004. "Networks of equities in financial markets," Papers cond-mat/0401300, arXiv.org.
  10. Miguel A. Segoviano, 2006. "Consistent information multivariate density optimizing methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24511, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  11. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Takami, Marcelo & Rocha, Jadson M.C. & Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Souza, Sergio R.S., 2014. "Directed clustering coefficient as a measure of systemic risk in complex banking networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 211-216.
  12. Vazquez, Francisco & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Souto, Marcos, 2012. "A macro stress test model of credit risk for the Brazilian banking sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 69-83.
  13. Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2013. "Complex networks and banking systems supervision," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4429-4434.
  14. Olivier De Jonghe, 2009. "Back to the basics in banking ? A micro-analysis of banking system stability," Working Paper Research 167, National Bank of Belgium.
  15. Dale F. Gray; & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2009. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 541, Central Bank of Chile.
  16. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
  17. Charles Goodhart & Miguel Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," FMG Discussion Papers dp627, Financial Markets Group.
  18. Puzanova, Natalia & Düllmann, Klaus, 2013. "Systemic risk contributions: A credit portfolio approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1243-1257.
  19. De Jonghe, O.G., 2009. "Back to Basics in Banking? A Micro-Analysis of Banking System Stability," Discussion Paper 2009-45 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  20. Thiago Christiano Silva & Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2015. "Monitoring Vulnerability and Impact Diffusion in Financial Networks," Working Papers Series 392, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  21. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  22. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
  23. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Fazio, Dimas M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2013. "Systemically important banks and financial stability: The case of Latin America," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3855-3866.
  24. Miguel A. Segoviano & Charles Goodhart, 2009. "Banking stability measures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24416, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  25. Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro & A. Luduvice, 2011. "Modeling Default Probabilities: the case of Brazil," Working Papers Series 232, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  26. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
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