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Evaluating systemic risk using bank default probabilities in financial networks

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  • Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato de
  • Silva, Thiago Christiano
  • Tabak, Benjamin Miranda
  • Guerra, Solange Maria

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to measure systemic risk in networks composed of financial institutions. Our procedure combines the impact effects obtained from stress measures that rely on feedback centrality properties with the default probabilities of institutions. We also present new heuristics for designing feasible and relevant stress-testing scenarios that can subside regulators in financial system surveillance tasks. We develop a methodology to extract banking communities and show that these communities have a relevant effect on systemic risk. We find that these communities are mostly composed of non-large banks, suggesting that regulators should also broaden their surveillance efforts to these banking communities other than to the usual SIFIs and large banks. Finally, our results provide insights and guidelines for policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato de & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Guerra, Solange Maria, 2016. "Evaluating systemic risk using bank default probabilities in financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 54-75.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:66:y:2016:i:c:p:54-75
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2016.03.003
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    3. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Cajueiro, Daniel Oliveira & Dias, Marina Villas Boas, 2018. "Adequacy of deterministic and parametric frontiers to analyze the efficiency of Indian commercial banks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 1016-1025.
    4. Avdjiev, S. & Giudici, P. & Spelta, A., 2019. "Measuring contagion risk in international banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 36-51.
    5. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Alexandre, Michel da Silva & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2018. "Bank lending and systemic risk: A financial-real sector network approach with feedback," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 98-118.
    6. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Guerra, Solange Maria, 2017. "Why do vulnerability cycles matter in financial networks?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 592-606.
    7. Gabriele Visentin & Stefano Battiston & Marco D'Errico, 2016. "Rethinking Financial Contagion," Papers 1608.07831, arXiv.org.
    8. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Guerra, Solange Maria & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2020. "Fiscal risk and financial fragility," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    9. Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato de & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Almeida, Carlos Eduardo de, 2019. "Bailing in Banks: costs and benefits," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    10. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Cajueiro, Daniel Oliveira & Dias, Marina Villas Boas, 2017. "A comparison of DEA and SFA using micro- and macro-level perspectives: Efficiency of Chinese local banks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 216-223.
    11. Thiago Christiano Silva & Solange Maria Guerra & Michel Alexandre da Silva & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2018. "Interconnectedness, Firm Resilience and Monetary Policy," Working Papers Series 478, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Casarin, Roberto & Costola, Michele & Yenerdag, Erdem, 2018. "Financial bridges and network communities," SAFE Working Paper Series 208, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    13. Barroso, João Barata Ribeiro Blanco & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato de, 2018. "Identifying systemic risk drivers in financial networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 650-674.
    14. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Silva, Rafael Bernardo da, 2018. "Effect of banking and macroeconomic variables on systemic risk: An application of ΔCOVAR for an emerging economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 141-157.
    15. X. Zhang & L. D. Valdez & H. E. Stanley & L. A. Braunstein, 2019. "Modeling Risk Contagion in the Venture Capital Market: A Multilayer Network Approach," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-11, December.
    16. Silva, Thiago Christiano & da Silva, Michel Alexandre & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2017. "Systemic risk in financial systems: A feedback approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 97-120.
    17. Aida Barkauskaite & Ausrine Lakstutiene & Justyna Witkowska, 2018. "Measurement of Systemic Risk in a Common European Union Risk-Based Deposit Insurance System: Formal Necessity or Value-Adding Process?," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(4), pages 1-21, December.
    18. Mariya Gubareva, 2019. "Weight of the Default Component of CDS Spreads: Avoiding Procyclicality in Credit Loss Provisioning Framework," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-19, July.
    19. Yao, Yanzhen & Li, Jianping & Zhu, Xiaoqian & Wei, Lu, 2017. "Expected default based score for identifying systemically important banks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 589-600.
    20. Bardoscia, Marco & Barucca, Paolo & Codd, Adam Brinley & Hill, John, 2019. "Forward-looking solvency contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    21. Li, Wenwei & Hommel, Ulrich & Paterlini, Sandra, 2018. "Network topology and systemic risk: Evidence from the Euro Stoxx market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 105-112.
    22. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    23. Ardekani, Aref Mahdavi & Distinguin, Isabelle & Tarazi, Amine, 2020. "Do banks change their liquidity ratios based on network characteristics?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(2), pages 789-803.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; Financial stability; Interbank market; Stress test; Macroprudential; Network;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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