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Systemic risk contributions: a credit portfolio approach

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  • Düllmann, Klaus
  • Puzanova, Natalia

Abstract

We put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks' contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks' systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks' assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic risk in terms of the portfolio expected shortfall (ES). Banks' (marginal) risk contributions are calculated based on partial derivatives of the ES in order to ensure a full risk allocation among institutions. We compare the performance of an importance sampling algorithm with a fast analytical approximation of the ES and the marginal risk contributions. Furthermore, we show empirically for a portfolio of large international banks how our approach could be implemented to compute bank-specific capital surcharges for systemic risk or stabilisation fees. We find that size alone is not a reliable proxy for the systemic importance of a bank in this framework. In order to smooth cyclical fluctuations of the risk measure, we explore a time-varying confidence level of the ES.

Suggested Citation

  • Düllmann, Klaus & Puzanova, Natalia, 2011. "Systemic risk contributions: a credit portfolio approach," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:201108
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    Cited by:

    1. Morone, Marco & Cornaglia, Anna & Mignola, Giulio, 2012. "Determining marginal contributions of the economic capital of credit risk portfolio: an analytical approach," MPRA Paper 39119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Guerra, Solange Maria & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & de Souza Penaloza, Rodrigo Andrés & de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo César, 2016. "Systemic risk measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 329-342.
    3. repec:spr:annopr:v:262:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10479-016-2113-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Tente, Natalia & von Westernhagen, Natalja & Slopek, Ulf, 2017. "M-PRESS-CreditRisk: A holistic micro- and macroprudential approach to capital requirements," Discussion Papers 15/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Löffler, Gunter & Raupach, Peter, 2013. "Robustness and informativeness of systemic risk measures," Discussion Papers 04/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Abdelkader Derbali & Slaheddine Hallara, 2016. "Systemic risk of European institutions: estimation and ranking by Marginal Expected Shortfall," Post-Print hal-01696000, HAL.
    7. Laeven, Luc & Ratnovski, Lev & Tong, Hui, 2016. "Bank size, capital, and systemic risk: Some international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(S1), pages 25-34.
    8. Derbali, Abdelkader & Hallara, Slaheddine, 2016. "Systemic risk of European financial institutions: Estimation and ranking by the Marginal Expected Shortfall," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 113-134.
    9. Puzanova, Natalia & Düllmann, Klaus, 2013. "Systemic risk contributions: A credit portfolio approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1243-1257.
    10. Avramidis, Panagiotis & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2015. "Calculating systemic risk capital: A factor model approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 138-150.
    11. Takashi Kato, 2017. "Asymptotic Analysis for Spectral Risk Measures Parameterized by Confidence Level," Papers 1711.07335, arXiv.org.
    12. Fiala, Tomas & Havranek, Tomas, 2017. "The sources of contagion risk in a banking sector with foreign ownership," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 108-121.
    13. Black, Lamont & Correa, Ricardo & Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao, 2016. "The systemic risk of European banks during the financial and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 107-125.
    14. repec:bis:bisifc:45-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1343-1354 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Carsten Detken & Olaf Weeken & Lucia Alessi & Diana Bonfim & Miguel M. Boucinha & Christian Castro & Sebastian Frontczak & Gaston Giordana & Julia Giese & Nadya Jahn & Jan Kakes & Benjamin Klaus & Jan, 2014. "Operationalising the countercyclical capital buffer: indicator selection, threshold identification and calibration options," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 05, European Systemic Risk Board.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    systemic risk contributions; systemic capital charge; expected shortfall; importance sampling; granularity adjustment;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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