Systemic risk contributions: a credit portfolio approach
We put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks' contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks' systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks' assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic risk in terms of the portfolio expected shortfall (ES). Banks' (marginal) risk contributions are calculated based on partial derivatives of the ES in order to ensure a full risk allocation among institutions. We compare the performance of an importance sampling algorithm with a fast analytical approximation of the ES and the marginal risk contributions. Furthermore, we show empirically for a portfolio of large international banks how our approach could be implemented to compute bank-specific capital surcharges for systemic risk or stabilisation fees. We find that size alone is not a reliable proxy for the systemic importance of a bank in this framework. In order to smooth cyclical fluctuations of the risk measure, we explore a time-varying confidence level of the ES.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 0 69 / 95 66 - 34 55
Fax: 0 69 / 95 66 30 77
Web page: http://www.bundesbank.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Susanne Emmer & Dirk Tasche, 2003. "Calculating credit risk capital charges with the one-factor model," Papers cond-mat/0302402, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2005.
- Gordy, Michael B., 2003.
"A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules,"
Journal of Financial Intermediation,
Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
- Michael B. Gordy, 2002. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gauthier, Céline & Lehar, Alfred & Souissi, Moez, 2012. "Macroprudential capital requirements and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 594-618.
- Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009.
"A Framework for Assessing the Systemic Risk of Major Financial Institutions,"
BIS Working Papers
281, Bank for International Settlements.
- Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
- Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Michael Kalkbrener, 2005. "An Axiomatic Approach To Capital Allocation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 425-437.
- Michael Boss & Gerald Krenn & Claus Puhr & Martin Summer, 2006. "Systemic Risk Monitor: A Model for Systemic Risk Analysis and Stress Testing of Banking Systems," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 11, pages 83-95.
- Puzanova, Natalia & Düllmann, Klaus, 2013.
"Systemic risk contributions: A credit portfolio approach,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1243-1257.
- Düllmann, Klaus & Puzanova, Natalia, 2011. "Systemic risk contributions: a credit portfolio approach," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006.
"Risk Assessment for Banking Systems,"
INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
- De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000.
"Systemic risk: A survey,"
Working Paper Series
0035, European Central Bank.
- Christian Upper & Andreas Worms, 2001.
"Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: is there a danger of contagion?,"
BIS Papers chapters,
in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 211-229
Bank for International Settlements.
- Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
- Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Elsinger, Helmut & Lehar, Alfred & Summer, Martin, 2005.
"Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment,"
817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
- James, Christopher, 1991. " The Losses Realized in Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1223-42, September.
- Paul Glasserman & Jingyi Li, 2005. "Importance Sampling for Portfolio Credit Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(11), pages 1643-1656, November.
- Borio, C., 2009.
"Implementing the macroprudential approach to financial regulation and supervision,"
Financial Stability Review,
Banque de France, issue 13, pages 31-41, September.
- Claudio Borio, 2011. "Implementing the Macroprudential Approach to Financial Regulation and Supervision," Chapters, in: The Financial Crisis and the Regulation of Finance, chapter 7 Edward Elgar.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974.
"On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2010.
"Measuring systemic risk,"
1002, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Dirk Tasche, 2007. "Capital Allocation to Business Units and Sub-Portfolios: the Euler Principle," Papers 0708.2542, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2008.
- Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2008.
"Network models and financial stability,"
Bank of England working papers
346, Bank of England.
- Bartram, Sohnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Hund, John E., 2007.
"Estimating systemic risk in the international financial system,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 835-869, December.
- Bartram, Söhnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Hund, John E., 2005. "Estimating Systemic Risk in the International Financial System," MPRA Paper 6658, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Miguel A. Segoviano & Charles Goodhart, 2009. "Banking stability measures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24416, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- De Nicolo, Gianni & Kwast, Myron L., 2002. "Systemic risk and financial consolidation: Are they related?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 861-880, May.
- Lehar, Alfred, 2005. "Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2577-2603, October.
- Acerbi, Carlo & Tasche, Dirk, 2002.
"On the coherence of expected shortfall,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1487-1503, July.
- Nikola Tarashev & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2010. "Attributing systemic risk to individual institutions," BIS Working Papers 308, Bank for International Settlements.
- Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2011.
"Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1114-1127, May.
- Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2007. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 641, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Charles Goodhart & Miguel Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," FMG Discussion Papers dp627, Financial Markets Group.
- Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2007. "Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Contagion Risk in the Belgian Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 123-171, June.
- Gianni De NicolÃ³ & Myron L. Kwast, 2002. "Systemic Risk and Financial Consolidation; Are they Related?," IMF Working Papers 02/55, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:201108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.