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Robustness and informativeness of systemic risk measures

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  • Löffler, Gunter
  • Raupach, Peter

Abstract

Recent literature has proposed new methods for measuring the systemic risk of financial institutions based on observed stock returns. In this paper we examine the reliability and robustness of such risk measures, focusing on CoVaR, marginal expected shortfall, and option-based tail risk estimates. We show that CoVaR exhibits undesired characteristics in the way it responds to idiosyncratic risk. In the presence of contagion, the risk measures provide conflicting signals on the systemic risk of infectious and infected banks. Finally, we explore how limited data availability typical of practical applications may limit the measures' performance. We generate systemic tail risk through positions in standard index options and describe situations in which systemic risk is misestimated by the three measures. The observations raise doubts about the informativeness of the proposed measures. In particular, a direct application to regulatory capital surcharges for systemic risk could create wrong incentives for banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Löffler, Gunter & Raupach, Peter, 2013. "Robustness and informativeness of systemic risk measures," Discussion Papers 04/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:042013
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    Cited by:

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    2. Michal Skorepa & Jakub Seidler, 2015. "Capital buffers based on banks’ domestic systemic importance: selected issues," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 7(3), pages 207-220, August.
    3. S. Tavolaro & F. Visnovsky, 2014. "What is the information content of the SRISK measure as a supervisory tool?," Débats économiques et financiers 10, Banque de France.
    4. Adrian Alter & Ben R. Craig & Peter Raupach, 2015. "Centrality-Based Capital Allocations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 329-377, June.
    5. Liu, Xiaochun, 2017. "Measuring systemic risk with regime switching in tails," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 55-72.
    6. Agur, Itai, 2014. "Bank risk within and across equilibria," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 322-333.
    7. Boucher, Christophe M. & Daníelsson, Jón & Kouontchou, Patrick S. & Maillet, Bertrand B., 2014. "Risk models-at-risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 72-92.
    8. Martin Eling & David Antonius Pankoke, 2016. "Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector: A Review and Directions for Future Research," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 249-284, September.
    9. I�aki Aldasoro & Ignazio Angeloni, 2015. "Input-output-based measures of systemic importance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 589-606, April.
    10. Betz, Frank & Hautsch, Nikolaus & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schienle, Melanie, 2016. "Systemic risk spillovers in the European banking and sovereign network," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 206-224.
    11. Sergio Masciantonio & Andrea Zaghini, 2017. "Systemic risk and systemic importance measures during the crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1153, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Castro, Carlos & Ferrari, Stijn, 2014. "Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-14.
    13. Dinara Khamitovna GALLYAMOVA & Aidar Il'darovich MIFTAKHOV, 2017. "Boosting The Autonomy Of Regional Banking Systems As A Driver Of Economic Development: The Case Of Russia," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 55-68, December.
    14. Pankoke, David, 2014. "Sophisticated vs. Simple Systemic Risk Measures," Working Papers on Finance 1422, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    15. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Costola, Michele & Pasqualini, Andrea, 2016. "An entropy-based early warning indicator for systemic risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 42-59.
    16. Kubitza, Christian & Gründl, Helmut, 2016. "Systemic risk: Time-lags and persistence," ICIR Working Paper Series 20/16, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    17. Cristina Zeldea, 2020. "Modeling the Connection between Bank Systemic Risk and Balance-Sheet Liquidity Proxies through Random Forest Regressions," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, August.
    18. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Masciantonio, Sergio & Zaghini, Andrea, 2014. "Everything you always wanted to know about systemic importance (but were afraid to ask)," CFS Working Paper Series 463, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic Risk; CoVaR; Marginal Expected Shortfall; Tail Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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