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Systemic risk spillovers in the European banking and sovereign network

Author

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  • Betz, Frank
  • Hautsch, Nikolaus
  • Peltonen, Tuomas A.
  • Schienle, Melanie

Abstract

We propose a framework for estimating network-driven time-varying systemic risk contributions that is applicable to a high-dimensional financial system. Tail risk dependencies and contributions are estimated based on a penalized two-stage fixed-effects quantile approach, which explicitly links bank interconnectedness to systemic risk contributions. The framework is applied to a system of 51 large European banks and 17 sovereigns through the period 2006 to 2013, utilizing both equity and CDS prices. We provide new evidence on how banking sector fragmentation and sovereign-bank linkages evolved over the European sovereign debt crisis and how it is reflected in network statistics and systemic risk measures. Illustrating the usefulness of the framework as a monitoring tool, we provide indication for the fragmentation of the European financial system having peaked and that recovery has started.

Suggested Citation

  • Betz, Frank & Hautsch, Nikolaus & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schienle, Melanie, 2014. "Systemic risk spillovers in the European banking and sovereign network," CFS Working Paper Series 467, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:467
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    1. repec:eee:finlet:v:28:y:2019:i:c:p:153-159 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Buse, Rebekka & Schienle, Melanie & Urban, Jörg, 2019. "Effectiveness of policy and regulation in European sovereign credit risk markets: A network analysis," Working Paper Series in Economics 125, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Business Engineering.
    3. Dieter Wang & Iman van Lelyveld & Julia Schaumburg, 2018. "Do information contagion and business model similarities explain bank credit risk commonalities?," DNB Working Papers 619, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Buch, Claudia M. & Koetter, Michael & Ohls, Jana, 2016. "Banks and sovereign risk: A granular view," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
    5. repec:eee:dyncon:v:100:y:2019:i:c:p:86-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Wang, Weining & Yu, Lining, 2016. "TENET: Tail-Event driven NETwork risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 499-513.
    7. Abbassi, Puriya & Brownlees, Christian & Hans, Christina & Podlich, Natalia, 2017. "Credit risk interconnectedness: What does the market really know?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-12.
    8. Hué, Sullivan & Lucotte, Yannick & Tokpavi, Sessi, 2019. "Measuring network systemic risk contributions: A leave-one-out approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 86-114.
    9. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:40:y:2018:i:6:p:1243-1254 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eee:jimfin:v:82:y:2018:i:c:p:45-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. G. Chiesa & J. M. Mansilla-Fernández, 2018. "Non-Performing Loans, Cost of Capital, and Lending Supply: Lessons from the Eurozone Banking Crisi," Working Papers wp1124, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    12. repec:eee:finlet:v:21:y:2017:i:c:p:163-171 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:eee:finlet:v:27:y:2018:i:c:p:105-112 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Gabriella CHIESA & José Manuel MANSILLA-FERNÁNDEZ, 2018. "Non-Performing Loans, Cost of Capital, and Lending Supply: Lessons from the Eurozone Banking Crisis," Departmental Working Papers 2018-05, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    15. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    systemic risk contribution; tail dependence; network topology; sovereignbank linkages; Value-at-Risk;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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