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The Janus-headed salvation: sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-09

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  • Ejsing, Jacob
  • Lemke, Wolfgang

Abstract

As the global banking crisis intensified in the fall of 2008, governments announced comprehensive rescue packages for financial institutions. In this paper, we put the joint response of euro area bank and sovereign CDS premia under the microscope. We find that the bank rescue packages led to a clear structural break in these premia's comovement, which had been rather tight and stable in the weeks preceding the in-tensification of the crisis. Firstly, the packages induced a decrease in risk spreads for banks at the expense of a marked increase in risk spreads for governments. Secondly, we show that in addition to this one-off jump in the levels of CDS spreads, the packages strongly increased the sensitivity of sovereign risk spreads to any further aggravation of the crisis. At the same time, the sensitivity of bank credit risk premia declined and became more sovereign-like, reflecting the extensive government guarantees of banking sector liabilities. JEL Classification: G15, G21

Suggested Citation

  • Ejsing, Jacob & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2009. "The Janus-headed salvation: sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-09," Working Paper Series 1127, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091127
    Note: 807173
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kalbaska, A. & Gątkowski, M., 2012. "Eurozone sovereign contagion: Evidence from the CDS market (2005–2010)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 657-673.
    2. Thomas Laubach, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates: The Role of Sovereign Default Risk," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 7-30.
    3. Herrmann, Sabine & Kleinert, Jörn, 2014. "Lucas paradox and allocation puzzle: Is the euro area different?," Discussion Papers 06/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Patrick Augustin, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia," Working Papers 12-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    5. Bálint L. Horváth & Harry Huizinga, 2015. "Does the European Financial Stability Facility Bail Out Sovereigns or Banks? An Event Study," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 177-206, February.
    6. Chan-Lau, Jorge A. & Liu, Estelle X. & Schmittmann, Jochen M., 2015. "Equity returns in the banking sector in the wake of the Great Recession and the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 164-172.
    7. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    8. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL & Diana Valentina SOARE, 2016. "Statistical-econometric model used to analyze the operational and insolvency risks," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 221-228, Autumn.
    9. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "Causality and contagion in EMU sovereign debt markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-27.
    10. van Bekkum, Sjoerd, 2016. "Ireland’s 2010 EU/IMF intervention: Costs and benefits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 175-183.
    11. Baglioni, Angelo & Cherubini, Umberto, 2013. "Marking-to-market government guarantees to financial systems – Theory and evidence for Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 990-1007.
    12. van Riet, Ad, 2010. "Euro area fiscal policies and the crisis," Occasional Paper Series 109, European Central Bank.
    13. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Claeys, Peter & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2016. "How do experts forecast sovereign spreads?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 216-235.
    14. Baglioni, Angelo & Cherubini, Umberto, 2013. "Within and between systemic country risk. Theory and evidence from the sovereign crisis in Europe," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1581-1597.
    15. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2013. "Current account adjustment in EU countries: Does euro-area membership make a difference?," Discussion Papers 49/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Mr. Dale F Gray, 2013. "Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR," IMF Working Papers 2013/218, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Caruana, J. & Avdjiev, S., 2012. "Sovereign creditworthiness and financial stability:an international perspective," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 71-85, April.
    18. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 162-194, June.
    19. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL & Diana Valentina SOARE, 2016. "Statistical-econometric model used to analyze the operational and insolvency risks," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 221-228, Autumn.
    20. Silvapulle, Param & Fenech, Jean Pierre & Thomas, Alice & Brooks, Rob, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads and contagion in the peripheral EU countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 83-92.
    21. Mr. Ashoka Mody & Mr. Damiano Sandri, 2011. "The Eurozone Crisis: How Banks and Sovereigns Came to Be Joined At the Hip," IMF Working Papers 2011/269, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "The impact of sovereign credit risk on bank funding conditions," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 43, June.
    23. Ms. Edda Zoli & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2009/222, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit default swaps; financial crisis; risk transfer;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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