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Monetary policy, bank bailouts and the sovereign-bank risk nexus in the euro area

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  • Fratzscher, Marcel
  • Rieth, Malte

Abstract

The paper analyses the empirical relationship between bank risk and sovereign credit risk in the euro area. Using structural VAR with daily financial markets data for 2003-13, the analysis confirms two-way causality between shocks to sovereign risk and bank risk, with the former being overall more important in explaining bank risk, than vice versa. The paper focuses specifically on the impact of non-standard monetary policy measures by the European Central Bank and on the effects of bank bailout policies by national governments. Testing specific hypotheses formulated in the literature, we find that bank bailout policies have reduced solvency risk in the banking sector, but partly at the expense of raising the credit risk of sovereigns. By contrast, monetary policy was in most, but not all cases effective in lowering credit risk among both sovereigns and banks. Finally, we find spillover effects in particular from sovereigns in the euro area periphery to the core countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Fratzscher, Marcel & Rieth, Malte, 2015. "Monetary policy, bank bailouts and the sovereign-bank risk nexus in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 10370, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10370
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Bruha & Evžen Kocenda, 2017. "Financial Stability in Europe: Banking and Sovereign Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 6453, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2015. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 276-295.
    3. von Borstel, Julia & Eickmeier, Sandra & Krippner, Leo, 2016. "The interest rate pass-through in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 386-402.
    4. Kok, Christoffer & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Hüser, Anne-Caroline & Perales, Cristian & van der Kraaij, Anton, 2017. "The systemic implications of bail-in: a multi-layered network approach," Working Paper Series 2010, European Central Bank.
    5. Massimiliano Caporin & Gisle J. Natvik & Francesco Ravazzolo & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2017. "The Bank-Sovereign Nexus: Evidence from a non-Bailout Episode," CREATES Research Papers 2017-25, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Bettendorf, Timo, 2016. "Spillover effects of credit default risk in the euro area and the effects on the euro: A GVAR approach," Discussion Papers 42/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Andrea Beltratti & René M. Stulz, 2015. "Bank sovereign bond holdings, sovereign shock spillovers, and moral hazard during the European crisis," NBER Working Papers 21150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. repec:eee:macchp:v2-355 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Holton, Sarah & McCann, Fergal, 2016. "Sources of the small firm financing premium: Evidence from euro area banks," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    10. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 22059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Große Steffen, Christoph, 2015. "Uncertainty shocks and non-fundamental debt crises: An ambiguity approach," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112936, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Maximilian Podstawski & Anton Velinov, 2016. "The State Dependent Impact of Bank Exposure on Sovereign Risk," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1550, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank bailout; banks; credit risk; heteroscedasticity; monetary policy; sovereigns; spillovers;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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