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Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin?


  • Avino, Davide
  • Cotter, John


This paper investigates the relationship between sovereign and bank CDS spreads with reference to their ability to convey timely signals on the default risk of European sovereign countries and their banking systems. By using a sample of six major European economies, we find that sovereign and bank CDS spreads are cointegrated variables at the country level. We then perform a more in-depth investigation of the underlying price discovery mechanisms. By decomposing the noise and speed of adjustment components of the price discovery, we find that both variables have an important price discovery role in the period 2004-2013. Most developed countries (Germany, Sweden) show a clear leading role for bank CDS spreads throughout the sample period, whereas most distressed European economies (Portugal and Spain) are governed by a leading role for their sovereign CDS spreads during both the sub-prime crisis and the subsequent European sovereign debt crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Avino, Davide & Cotter, John, 2014. "Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin?," MPRA Paper 55208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55208

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    2. repec:oup:revfin:v:21:y:2017:i:1:p:363-385. is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2017. "Sovereign default risk linkage: Implication for portfolio diversification," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-16.
    4. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2017. "Regime-Dependent Sovereign Risk Pricing During the Euro Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 363-385.
    5. Murad A.Bein & Gulcay TUNA, 2015. "Volatility Transmission and Dynamic Correlation Analysis between Developed and Emerging European Stock Markets during Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 61-80, June.
    6. Bijlsma, Melle & Vermeulen, Robert, 2016. "Insurance companies’ trading behaviour during the European sovereign debt crisis: Flight home or flight to quality?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 137-154.
    7. repec:erc:cypepr:v:11:y:2017:i:2:p:19-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Davide Avino & Thomas Conlon & John Cotter, 2016. "Credit Default Swaps as Indicators of Bank Financial Distress," Working Papers 201601, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    9. repec:pal:gpprii:v:43:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1057_s41288-017-0049-0 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Credit default swap spreads; price discovery; information flow; financial crisis; banks; sovereign risk; bank capital;

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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