IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Price Discovery of Credit Spreads in Tranquil and Crisis Periods

  • Avino, Davide
  • Lazar, Emese
  • Varotto, Simone

Credit spreads can be derived from the prices of securities traded in different markets. In this paper we investigate the price discovery process in single-name credit spreads obtained from bonds, credit default swaps, equities and equity options. Using a vector error correction model (VECM) of changes in credit spreads for a sample that includes the 2007-2009 financial crisis, we find that during periods of high volatility, price discovery takes place primarily in the option market, whilst the equity market leads the other markets during tranquil periods. By adding GARCH effects to the VECM specification, we also find strong evidence of volatility spillovers from the option market to the other markets in crisis periods. Finally, we show how time-varying measures of price discovery can be generated using GARCH models.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42847/1/MPRA_paper_42847.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42847.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42847
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2459
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-992459
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Young Ho Eom, 2004. "Structural Models of Corporate Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 499-544.
  2. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
  3. Haibin Zhu, 2006. "An Empirical Comparison of Credit Spreads between the Bond Market and the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 211-235, June.
  4. Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Juan Ignacio & Mayordomo, Sergio, 2010. "Are all Credit Default Swap databases equal?," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb104621, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  5. Cao, Charles & Yu, Fan & Zhong, Zhaodong, 2010. "The information content of option-implied volatility for credit default swap valuation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 321-343, August.
  6. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. " One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-99, September.
  7. Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Juan Ignacio & Forte, Santiago, 2006. "Credit spreads: theory and evidence about the information content of stocks, bonds and cdss," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb063310, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  8. Cremers, Martijn & Driessen, Joost & Maenhout, Pascal & Weinbaum, David, 2008. "Individual stock-option prices and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2706-2715, December.
  9. Ilia D. Dichev, 1998. "Is the Risk of Bankruptcy a Systematic Risk?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 1131-1147, 06.
  10. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  11. Yan, Bingcheng & Zivot, Eric, 2010. "A structural analysis of price discovery measures," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, February.
  12. Houweling, Patrick & Vorst, Ton, 2005. "Pricing default swaps: Empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1200-1225, December.
  13. Lawrence Fisher, 1959. "Determinants of Risk Premiums on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67, pages 217.
  14. Acharya, Viral V & Johnson, Tim, 2005. "Insider Trading in Credit Derivatives," CEPR Discussion Papers 5180, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
  16. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July.
  17. Forte, Santiago & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2009. "Credit spreads: An empirical analysis on the informational content of stocks, bonds, and CDS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2013-2025, November.
  18. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
  19. Sugato Chakravarty & Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2004. "Informed Trading in Stock and Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1235-1258, 06.
  20. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. " Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-25, July.
  21. Sudheer Chava & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2010. "Is Default Risk Negatively Related to Stock Returns?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2523-2559, June.
  22. L. Meng & O. Gwilym & J. Varas, 2009. "Volatility transmission among the CDS, equity, and bond markets," Post-Print halshs-00487331, HAL.
  23. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  24. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
  25. Kapadia, Nikunj & Pu, Xiaoling, 2012. "Limited arbitrage between equity and credit markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 542-564.
  26. Haibin Zhu, 2004. "An empirical comparison of credit spreads between the bond market and the credit default swap market," BIS Working Papers 160, Bank for International Settlements.
  27. Das, Sanjiv R. & Hanouna, Paul, 2009. "Hedging credit: Equity liquidity matters," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 112-123, January.
  28. Jun Pan & Allen M. Poteshman, 2006. "The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 871-908.
  29. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
  30. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment-Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
  31. Baba, Naohiko & Inada, Masakazu, 2009. "Price discovery of subordinated credit spreads for Japanese mega-banks: Evidence from bond and credit default swap markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 616-632, October.
  32. Ramon E. Johnson, 1967. "Term Structures Of Corporate Bond Yields As A Function Of Risk Of Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 313-345, 05.
  33. Sarig, Oded & Warga, Arthur, 1989. " Some Empirical Estimates of the Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1351-60, December.
  34. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42847. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.