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An analysis of sectoral equity and CDS spreads

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar

Abstract

In this paper, we find that CDS return shocks are important in explaining the forecast error variance of sectoral equity returns for the USA. The CDS return shocks have different effects on equity returns and return volatility in the pre-crisis and crisis periods. It is the post-Lehman crisis period in which the effects of CDS return shocks are the most dominant. Finally, we construct a spillover index and find that it is time-varying and explains a larger share of total forecast error variance of sectoral equity and CDS returns for some sectors than for others.
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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "An analysis of sectoral equity and CDS spreads," Working Papers fe_2015_02, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2015_02
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2014.10.004
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    Cited by:

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    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Toparli, Elif Akay, 2018. "On the risk spillover across the oil market, stock market, and the oil related CDS sectors: A volatility impulse response approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 813-827.
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    4. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2017. "Equity market information and credit risk signaling: A quantile cointegrating regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 48-59.
    5. Ozturk, Huseyin & Namli, Ersin & Erdal, Halil Ibrahim, 2016. "Modelling sovereign credit ratings: The accuracy of models in a heterogeneous sample," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 469-478.
    6. Christian Manicaro, 2023. "Sectoral and Regional Volatility Connectedness: The Case of CDS Spreads and Equities," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(4), pages 1-8, April.
    7. Ni, Zhong-Xin & Wang, Da-Zhong & Xue, Wen-Jun, 2015. "Investor sentiment and its nonlinear effect on stock returns—New evidence from the Chinese stock market based on panel quantile regression model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 266-274.
    8. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Ferrer, Roman & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: U.S. industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 211-230.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2021. "Financial news and CDS spreads," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    10. Griffin, Paul A. & Lont, David H., 2018. "Game changer? The impact of the VW emission-cheating scandal on the interrelation between large automakers’ equity and credit markets," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 179-196.
    11. Dimitrios Vortelinos & Konstantinos Gkillas (Gillas) & Costas Syriopoulos & Argyro Svingou, 2017. "Asymmetric and nonlinear inter-relations of US stock indices," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(1), pages 78-129, December.
    12. Wu, Lei & Zeng, Hongchao, 2019. "The impact of liquidity constraints on the cash-futures basis dynamics: Evidence from the Chinese market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 96-110.
    13. Del Brio, Esther B. & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2017. "The kidnapping of Europe: High-order moments' transmission between developed and emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 96-115.
    14. Theodoros Bratis & Nikiforos T. Laopodis & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2023. "CDS and equity markets’ volatility linkages: lessons from the EMU crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1259-1281, April.
    15. Gannon, Gerard L. & Thuraisamy, Kannan S., 2017. "Sovereign risk and the impact of crisis: Evidence from Latin AmericaAuthor-Name: Batten, Jonathan A," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 328-350.
    16. Samaniego-Medina, Reyes & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & di Pietro, Filippo, 2016. "Determinants of bank CDS spreads in Europe," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-15.
    17. Gao, Feng & Li, Yubin & Wang, Xinjie & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2021. "Corporate social responsibility and the term structure of CDS spreads," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Roshanthi Dias, 2017. "The role of managerial risk-taking in the ‘rise and fall’ of the CDS market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57, pages 117-145, April.
    19. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Balcilar, Mehmet & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Distribution specific dependence and causality between industry-level U.S. credit and stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 114-133.
    20. Jin, Jiayu & Han, Liyan & Wu, Lei & Zeng, Hongchao, 2020. "The hedging effectiveness of global sectors in emerging and developed stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 92-117.
    21. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Thuraisamy, Kannan & Madyan, Muhammad & Laila, Nisful, 2019. "Evidence of price discovery on the Indonesian stock exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 2-7.
    22. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2019. "Asset pricing factors and bank CDS spreads," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-41.
    23. Laura Ballester & Ana González-Urteaga, 2020. "Is There a Connection between Sovereign CDS Spreads and the Stock Market? Evidence for European and US Returns and Volatilities," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-34, September.
    24. Zhang, Bing & Wang, Yudong, 2015. "Limited attention of individual investors and stock performance: Evidence from the ChiNext market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 94-104.

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    Keywords

    Equity Returns; Spillover; CDS Spread; Forecast Error Variance;
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