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An empirical comparison of credit spreads between the bond market and the credit default swap market

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  • Haibin Zhu

Abstract

This paper compares the pricing of credit risk in the bond market and the fast-growing credit default swap (CDS) market. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical prediction that bond spreads and CDS spreads move together in the long run. Nevertheless, in the short run this relationship does not always hold. The deviation is largely due to different responses of the two markets to changes in credit conditions. By looking into the dynamic linkages between the two spreads, I find that the CDS market often moves ahead of the bond market in price adjustment, particularly for US entities. Liquidity also matters for their role in price discovery. Surprisingly, the terms of CDS contracts and the short-sale restriction in the cash market only have a very small impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Haibin Zhu, 2004. "An empirical comparison of credit spreads between the bond market and the credit default swap market," BIS Working Papers 160, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:160
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Patrick Houweling & Ton Vorst, 2001. "An Empirical Comparison of Default Swap Pricing Models," Finance 0112003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Avino, Davide & Cotter, John, 2014. "Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: Two sides of the same coin?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 72-85.
    2. Avino, Davide & Nneji, Ogonna, 2014. "Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 262-274.
    3. Forte, Santiago & Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Juan Ignacio, 2006. "Credit spreads: theory and evidence about the information content of stocks, bonds and cdss," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb063310, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    4. Avino, Davide & Cotter, John, 2013. "Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin for European bank default predictability?," MPRA Paper 56782, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Antonio Di Cesare & Giovanni Guazzarotti, 2010. "An analysis of the determinants of credit default swap spread changes before and during the subprime financial turmoil," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 749, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Ari Aisen & Ignacio Badilla F. & Felipe Jaque S. & David Moreno S., 2010. "Crisis en la Zona Euro: Fundamentos tras el Reciente Aumento de Spreads Soberanos," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(1), pages 83-93, April.
    7. Calice, Giovanni, 2011. "The Impact of Collateral Policies on Sovereign CDS Spreads," ECMI Papers 12234, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    8. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "The comovement of credit default swap, bond and stock markets: An empirical analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/20, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. Davide Avino & Emese Lazar & Simone Varotto, 2011. "Which market drives credit spreads in tranquil and crisis periods? An analysis of the contribution to price discovery of bonds, CDS, stocks and options," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-17, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    10. Christina E. Bannier & Thomas Heidorn & Heinz-Dieter Vogel, 2014. "Characteristics and development of corporate and sovereign CDS," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 15(5), pages 482-509, November.
    11. Avino, Davide & Lazar, Emese & Varotto, Simone, 2013. "Price discovery of credit spreads in tranquil and crisis periods," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 242-253.
    12. Kim, Gi H. & Li, Haitao & Zhang, Weina, 2016. "CDS-bond basis and bond return predictability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 307-337.
    13. Andrés Castañeda & Juan F. Vargas, 2012. "Sovereign risk and armed conflict: an event-study for colombia," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 185-201, April.
    14. Odermann, Alexander & Cremers, Heinz, 2013. "Komponenten und Determinanten des Credit Spreads: Empirische Untersuchung während Phasen von Marktstress," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 204, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    15. Tapking, Jens & Eisenschmidt, Jens, 2009. "Liquidity risk premia in unsecured interbank money markets," Working Paper Series 1025, European Central Bank.
    16. Clemens Kool, 2006. "Financial Stability in European Banking: The Role of Common Factors," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 525-540, December.
    17. Georg von Pföstl & Markus Ricke, 2007. "Quantitative Validation of Rating Models for Low Default Portfolios through Benchmarking," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 14, pages 117-125.
    18. Forte, Santiago & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2009. "Credit spreads: An empirical analysis on the informational content of stocks, bonds, and CDS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2013-2025, November.
    19. Debora Revoltella & Fabio Mucci & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2010. "Properly pricing country risk: a model for pricing long-term fundamental risk applied to central and eastern European countries," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 219-245.
    20. Stuart M. Turnbull & Jun Yang, 2008. "Default Dependence: The Equity Default Relationship," Staff Working Papers 08-1, Bank of Canada.
    21. Avino, Davide & Lazar, Emese, 2012. "Rethinking Capital Structure Arbitrage," MPRA Paper 42850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Trutwein, Patrick & Schiereck, Dirk, 2011. "The fast and the furious--Stock returns and CDS of financial institutions under stress," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 157-175, April.
    23. Kim, Kwanho, 2017. "Liquidity basis between credit default swaps and corporate bonds markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 98-115.
    24. Michael Adler & Jeong Song, 2010. "The behavior of emerging market sovereigns' credit default swap premiums and bond yield spreads," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 31-58.

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