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The Relative Informational Efficiency of Stocks, Options and Credit Default Swaps

  • Lamia Bekkour

    ()

    (Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg)

  • Thorsten Lehnert

    ()

    (Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg)

  • Maria Chiara Amadari

    ()

    (School of Business and Economics, Maastricht University)

Registered author(s):

    In this study, we investigate the dynamics behind informed investors’ trading decisions among European stock, options and credit default swap markets. This allows us to identify the predictive explanatory power of the unique information contained in each market with respect to future stock, CDS and option market movements. A lead-lag relation is found between the options and CDS market in which changes in equity options’ implied volatility are able to consistently forecast changes in CDS spreads pointing out how the option market seems to play a special role in the price discovery process even in the presence of a very fast growing competitive market like the CDS market. Moreover, in contrast to US results, the stock market is found to forecast changes in the other two markets suggesting that investors first prefer stock market involvement to exploit their information advantages and then move to CDS and option markets. Although this is the case, the CDS market seems to gain importance in the price discovery process as firms’ become more risky.

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    Paper provided by Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg in its series LSF Research Working Paper Series with number 11-04.

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    Date of creation: 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:crf:wpaper:11-04
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    1. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    2. Jun Pan & Allen M. Poteshman, 2006. "The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 871-908.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
    4. Acharya, Viral V. & Johnson, Timothy C., 2007. "Insider trading in credit derivatives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 110-141, April.
    5. Coudert, V. & Gex, M., 2010. "Credit default swap and bond markets: which leads the other?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 14, pages 161-167, July.
    6. Forte, Santiago & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2009. "Credit spreads: An empirical analysis on the informational content of stocks, bonds, and CDS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2013-2025, November.
    7. Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2008. "Contagion in the Credit Default Swap Market: the case of the GM and Ford Crisis in 2005," Working Papers 2008-14, CEPII research center.
    8. Avino, Davide & Lazar, Emese & Varotto, Simone, 2013. "Price discovery of credit spreads in tranquil and crisis periods," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 242-253.
    9. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
    10. Charles Quanwei Cao & Zhiwu Chen & John M. Griffin, 2003. "Informational Content of Option Volume Prior to Takeovers," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm422, Yale School of Management.
    11. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(01), pages 109-132, February.
    12. Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2005. "Explaining credit default swap spreads with the equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Christopher F Baum, 2006. "An Introduction to Modern Econometrics using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number imeus, November.
    14. Juan Ignacio Pena & Santiago Forte, 2006. "CREDIT SPREADS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE ABOUT THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF STOCKS, BONDS AND CDSs," Business Economics Working Papers wb063310, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    15. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
    16. Byström, Hans N. E., 2005. "Credit Default Swaps and Equity Prices: The Itraxx CDS Index Market," Working Papers 2005:24, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 15 May 2005.
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