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Tail dependence of financial stocks and CDS markets: Evidence using copula methods and simulation-based inference

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  • da Silva, Paulo Pereira
  • Rebelo, Paulo Tomaz
  • Afonso, Cristina

Abstract

Using copula methods and simulation-based inference, the authors investigate the association between the performance of a stock index formed by European financial institutions and a basket of CDS contracts of the same sector. Their analysis focuses on (i) assessing the dependence structure of the markets when extreme events occur, and (ii) checking the validity of the conclusion by Merton (On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates, 1974) and other similar structural models that there is an intensification of the relationship between stock prices and credit spreads after large negative shocks in the value of firms' assets. The authors show that there is a large tail dependence between the two portfolios. However, the dependence structure seems to be similar with respect to positive and negative innovations in the indexes. Their findings suggest that credit models' implications do not apply to financial firms, likely because the implicit subsidies from governments to financial institutions are distorting the dependency structure.

Suggested Citation

  • da Silva, Paulo Pereira & Rebelo, Paulo Tomaz & Afonso, Cristina, 2014. "Tail dependence of financial stocks and CDS markets: Evidence using copula methods and simulation-based inference," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-27.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201439
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yoshiko Suzuki, 2016. "European banks' funding realignment during the European debt crisis: impact of counterparty risk and funding liquidity on FX swap pricing," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 696-703.
    2. Atil, Ahmed & Bradford, Marc & Elmarzougui, Abdelaziz & Lahiani, Amine, 2016. "Conditional dependence of US and EU sovereign CDS: A time-varying copula-based estimation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 42-53.
    3. Bouri, Elie & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina, 2017. "Volatility transmission from commodity markets to sovereign CDS spreads in emerging and frontier countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 155-165.
    4. repec:eee:intfin:v:52:y:2018:i:c:p:114-133 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Hui & Peng, Cheng & Yang, Yan, 2016. "Extreme dependence between crude oil and stock markets in Asia-Pacific regions: Evidence from quantile regression," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-46, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CDS markets; credit risk; Merton's model; copulas; simulation-based inference; banking;

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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