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Tail dependence of financial stocks and CDS markets: Evidence using copula methods and simulation-based inference

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  • da Silva, Paulo Pereira
  • Rebelo, Paulo Tomaz
  • Afonso, Cristina

Abstract

Using copula methods and simulation-based inference, the authors investigate the association between the performance of a stock index formed by European financial institutions and a basket of CDS contracts of the same sector. Their analysis focuses on (i) assessing the dependence structure of the markets when extreme events occur, and (ii) checking the validity of the conclusion by Merton (On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates, 1974) and other similar structural models that there is an intensification of the relationship between stock prices and credit spreads after large negative shocks in the value of firms' assets. The authors show that there is a large tail dependence between the two portfolios. However, the dependence structure seems to be similar with respect to positive and negative innovations in the indexes. Their findings suggest that credit models' implications do not apply to financial firms, likely because the implicit subsidies from governments to financial institutions are distorting the dependency structure.

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  • da Silva, Paulo Pereira & Rebelo, Paulo Tomaz & Afonso, Cristina, 2014. "Tail dependence of financial stocks and CDS markets: Evidence using copula methods and simulation-based inference," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-27.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201439
    DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2014-39
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    Cited by:

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    2. Abootaleb Shirvani & Dimitri Volchenkov, 2019. "A Regulated Market Under Sanctions: On Tail Dependence Between Oil, Gold, and Tehran Stock Exchange Index," Papers 1911.01826, arXiv.org.
    3. Atil, Ahmed & Bradford, Marc & Elmarzougui, Abdelaziz & Lahiani, Amine, 2016. "Conditional dependence of US and EU sovereign CDS: A time-varying copula-based estimation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 42-53.
    4. Mudiangombe, Benjamin & Muteba Mwamba, John Weirstrass, 2019. "Dependence Structure of Insurance Credit Default Swaps," MPRA Paper 97335, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Griffin, Paul A. & Lont, David H., 2018. "Game changer? The impact of the VW emission-cheating scandal on the interrelation between large automakers’ equity and credit markets," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 179-196.
    6. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Balcilar, Mehmet & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Distribution specific dependence and causality between industry-level U.S. credit and stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 114-133.
    7. Bouri, Elie & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina, 2017. "Volatility transmission from commodity markets to sovereign CDS spreads in emerging and frontier countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 155-165.
    8. Krupskii, Pavel & Joe, Harry, 2020. "Flexible copula models with dynamic dependence and application to financial data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 148-167.
    9. Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Hui & Peng, Cheng & Yang, Yan, 2016. "Extreme dependence between crude oil and stock markets in Asia-Pacific regions: Evidence from quantile regression," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-46, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CDS markets; credit risk; Merton's model; copulas; simulation-based inference; banking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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