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The comovement of credit default swap, bond and stock markets: An empirical analysis

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  • Norden, Lars
  • Weber, Martin

Abstract

This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between credit default swap, bond and stock markets during the period 2000-2002. Focusing on the intertemporal comovement, we examine weekly and daily lead-lag relationships in a vector autoregressive model and the adjustment between markets caused by cointegration. First, we find that stock returns lead CDS and bond spread changes. Second, CDS spread changes Granger cause bond spread changes for a higher number of firms than vice versa. Third, the CDS market is significantly more sensitive to the stock market than the bond market and the magnitude of this sensitivity increases when credit quality becomes worse. Finally, the CDS market plays a more important role for price discovery than the corporate bond market.

Suggested Citation

  • Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "The comovement of credit default swap, bond and stock markets: An empirical analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/20, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200420
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:wly:jfutmk:v:37:y:2017:i:8:p:836-861 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hassan, M. Kabir & Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Yu, Jung-Suk, 2015. "Credit default swaps and sovereign debt markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 240-252.
    3. Niels C. Thygesen & Robert N. McCauley & Guonan Ma & William R. White & Jakob de Haan & Willem van den End & Jon Frost & Christiaan Pattipeilohy & Mostafa Tabbae & Ernest Gnan & Morten Balling & Paul , 2013. "50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume - 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 1 edited by Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan.
    4. Song Han & Hao Zhou, 2016. "Effects of Liquidity on the Non-Default Component of Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from Intraday Transactions Data," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-49, September.
    5. C. Emre Alper & Lorenzo Forni & Marc Gerard, 2013. "Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk: Evidence from Advanced Economies during the Financial Crisis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 161-188, June.
    6. Yi-Hsuan Chen & Kehluh Wang & Anthony Tu, 2011. "Default correlation at the sovereign level: evidence from some Latin American markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(11), pages 1399-1411.
    7. Debora Revoltella & Fabio Mucci & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2010. "Properly pricing country risk: a model for pricing long-term fundamental risk applied to central and eastern European countries," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 219-245.
    8. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Tsionas, Mike G., 2015. "How are market preferences shaped? The case of sovereign debt of stressed euro-area countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 106-116.
    9. Byström, Hans, 2013. "Stock Prices and Stock Return Volatilities Implied by the Credit Market," Working Papers 2013:25, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 14 Feb 2014.
    10. Calice, Giovanni, 2011. "The Impact of Collateral Policies on Sovereign CDS Spreads," ECMI Papers 12234, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    11. Gi H. Kim & Haitao Li & Weina Zhang, 2017. "The CDS‐Bond Basis Arbitrage and the Cross Section of Corporate Bond Returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(8), pages 836-861, August.
    12. Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2010. "Disrupted links between credit default swaps, bonds and equities during the GM and Ford crisis in 2005," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(23), pages 1769-1792.
    13. Nathalie Rey, 2007. "Les dérivés de crédit : instruments de couverture et facteurs d'instabilité. L'exemple des « Credit Default Swap »," Post-Print halshs-00195901, HAL.
    14. Nicholas Apergis & Emmanuel Mamatzakis & Christos Staikouras, 2011. "Testing for Regime Changes in Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 258-273, August.
    15. Calice, Giovanni & Chen, Jing & Williams, Julian, 2013. "Liquidity spillovers in sovereign bond and CDS markets: An analysis of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 122-143.
    16. Sorin Gabriel Anton, 2011. "The Local Determinants Of Emerging Market Sovereign Cds Spreads In The Context Of The Debt Crisis. An Explanatory Study "," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 58, pages 41-52, november.
    17. Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2013. "The Interactions between the Credit Default Swap and the Bond Markets in Financial Turmoil," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 492-505, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Credit spreads; Credit derivatives; Lead-lag relationship;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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