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Contagion in the Credit Default Swap Market: the case of the GM and Ford Crisis in 2005

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  • Virginie Coudert
  • Mathieu Gex

Abstract

Has the General Motors (GM) and Ford crisis in 2005 spread to the whole credit default swap (CDS) market? To answer this question, we study the correlations between CDS premia, by using a sample of 226 CDSs on major US and European firms. We show that correlations significantly increased during the crisis, especially in the first week. We also test the links between markets at the firm level, using VECM and VAR models. The lead of the CDS market over the bond market appears to have weakened during the crisis. The links with the equity market were also mitigated.

Suggested Citation

  • Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2008. "Contagion in the Credit Default Swap Market: the case of the GM and Ford Crisis in 2005," Working Papers 2008-14, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dima Rahman, 2009. "Are Banking Systems Increasingly Fragile ? Investigating Financial Institutions’ CDS Returns Extreme Co-Movements," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-34, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Celık, Sibel, 2012. "The more contagion effect on emerging markets: The evidence of DCC-GARCH model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1946-1959.
    3. da Silva, Paulo Pereira & Rebelo, Paulo Tomaz & Afonso, Cristina, 2014. "Tail dependence of financial stocks and CDS markets: Evidence using copula methods and simulation-based inference," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-27.
    4. Sheri Markose & Simone Giansante & Mateusz Gatkowski & Ali Rais Shaghaghi, 2010. "Too Interconnected To Fail: Financial Contagion and Systemic Risk In Network Model of CDS and Other Credit Enhancement Obligations of US Banks," Working Papers 033, COMISEF.
    5. Lamia Bekkour & Thorsten Lehnert & Maria Chiara Amadari, 2011. "The Relative Informational Efficiency of Stocks, Options and Credit Default Swaps," LSF Research Working Paper Series 11-04, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Default Swap; Bond; Equity; Correlation; Contagion;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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