Too Interconnected To Fail: Financial Contagion and Systemic Risk In Network Model of CDS and Other Credit Enhancement Obligations of US Banks
Credit default swaps (CDS) which constitute up to 98% of credit derivatives have had a unique, endemic and pernicious role to play in the current financial crisis. However, there are few in depth empirical studies of the financial network interconnections among banks and between banks and nonbanks involved as CDS protection buyers and protection sellers. The ongoing problems related to technical insolvency of US commercial banks is not just confined to the so called legacy/toxic RMBS assets on balance sheets but also because of their credit risk exposures from SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles) and the CDS markets. The dominance of a few big players in the chains of insurance and reinsurance for CDS credit risk mitigation for banks’ assets has led to the idea of “too interconnected to fail” resulting, as in the case of AIG, of having to maintain the fiction of non-failure in order to avert a credit event that can bring down the CDS pyramid and the financial system. This paper also includes a brief discussion of the complex system Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE) approach to financial network modeling for systemic risk assessment. Quantitative analysis is confined to the empirical reconstruction of the US CDS network based on the FDIC Q4 2008 data in order to conduct a series of stress tests that investigate the consequences of the fact that top 5 US banks account for 92% of the US bank activity in the $34 tn global gross notional value of CDS for Q4 2008 (see, BIS and DTCC). The May-Wigner stability condition for networks is considered for the hub like dominance of a few financial entities in the US CDS structures to understand the lack of robustness. We provide a Systemic Risk Ratio and an implementation of concentration risk in CDS settlement for major US banks in terms of the loss of aggregate core capital. We also compare our stress test results with those provided by SCAP (Supervisory Capital Assessment Program). Finally, in the context of the Basel II credit risk transfer and synthetic securitization framework, there is little evidence that the CDS market predicated on a system of offsets to minimize final settlement can provide the credit risk mitigation sought by banks for reference assets in the case of a significant credit event. The large negative externalities that arise from a lack of robustness of the CDS financial network from the demise of a big CDS seller undermines the justification in Basel II that banks be permitted to reduce capital on assets that have CDS guarantees. We recommend that the Basel II provision for capital reduction on bank assets that have CDS cover should be discontinued.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alan Kirman, 1997. "The economy as an evolving network," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 339-353.
- Markose, Sheri & Arifovic, Jasmina & Sunder, Shyam, 2007. "Advances in experimental and agent-based modelling: Asset markets, economic networks, computational mechanism design and evolutionary game dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1801-1807, June.
- Jorion, Philippe & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2007. "Good and bad credit contagion: Evidence from credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 860-883, June.
- Furfine, Craig H, 2003. " Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-28, February.
- Efraim Benmelech & Jennifer Dlugosz, 2009.
"The Alchemy of CDO Credit Ratings,"
NBER Working Papers
14878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kirman, Alan & Markose, Sheri M & Giasante, Simone & Pin, Paolo, 2007.
"Marginal contribution, reciprocity and equity in segregated groups: Bounded rationality and self-organization in social networks,"
Economics Discussion Papers
3718, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- Kirman, Alan & Markose, Sheri & Giansante, Simone & Pin, Paolo, 2007. "Marginal contribution, reciprocity and equity in segregated groups: Bounded rationality and self-organization in social networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2085-2107, June.
- Ingo Fender & Martin Scheicher, 2008. "The ABX: how do the markets price subprime mortgage risk?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
- Markose, Sheri M & Alentorn, Amadeo & Krause, Andreas, 2004. "Dynamic Learning, Herding and Guru Effects in Networks," Economics Discussion Papers 3732, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- Jones, David, 2000. "Emerging problems with the Basel Capital Accord: Regulatory capital arbitrage and related issues," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 35-58, January.
- X. Freixas & B. Parigi & J-C. Rochet, 2000.
"Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by theCentral Bank,"
DNB Staff Reports (discontinued)
47, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-38, August.
- Xavier Freixas & Bruno Parigi & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2000. "Systemic risk, interbank relations, and liquidity provision by the central bank," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 611-640.
- Xavier Freixas & Bruno Parigi & Jean Charles Rochet, 1998. "Systemic risk, interbank relations and liquidity provision by the Central Bank," Economics Working Papers 440, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 1999.
- Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 1999. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," CEPR Discussion Papers 2325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Adam B. Ashcraft & Til Schuermann, 2008.
"Understanding the securitization of subprime mortgage credit,"
318, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Ashcraft, Adam B. & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 191-309, June.
- Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000.
"On crises, contagion, and confusion,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
- Marco Galbiati & Simone Giansante, 2010. "Emergence of networks in large value payment systems (LVPSs)," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 0110, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena.
- Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2008. "Contagion in the Credit Default Swap Market: the case of the GM and Ford Crisis in 2005," Working Papers 2008-14, CEPII research center.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- repec:esx:essedp:582 is not listed on IDEAS
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Markose, Sheri M., 2004. "Novelty in complex adaptive systems (CAS) dynamics: a computational theory of actor innovation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 41-49.
- Sheri M. Markose, 2005.
"Computability and Evolutionary Complexity: Markets as Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS),"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(504), pages F159-F192, 06.
- Markose, Sheri M, 2004. "Computability and Evolutionary Complexity: Markets As Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)," Economics Discussion Papers 3730, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- Markose, Sheri M, 1998. "Game Theory for central bankers: have they got it right?," Economics Discussion Papers 3740, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- Jeannette Müller, 2006. "Interbank Credit Lines as a Channel of Contagion," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 37-60, February.
- Christian Upper, 2007. "Using counterfactual simulations to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," BIS Working Papers 234, Bank for International Settlements.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:com:wpaper:033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anil Khuman)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.