Using counterfactual simulations to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets
Researchers at central banks increasingly turn to counterfactual simulations to estimate the danger of contagion owing to exposures in the interbank loan market. The present paper summarises the findings of such simulations, provides a critical assessment of the modelling assumptions on which they are based, and discusses their use in financial stability analysis. On the whole, such simulations suggest that contagious defaults are unlikely, but cannot be fully ruled out, at least in some countries. If contagion does take place, then it could lead to the breakdown of a substantial fraction of the banking system, thus imposing high costs to society. However, when interpreting these results, one has to bear in mind the potential bias caused by the very strong assumptions underlying the simulations. While robustness tests indicate that the models might be able to correctly predict whether or not contagion could be an issue and, possibly, also identify critical institutions, they are less suited for stress testing or for the analysis of policy options in crises, primarily due to their lack of behavioural foundations. Going forward, more work is needed on how to attach probabilities to the individual scenarios and on the microfoundations of the models.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centralbahnplatz 2, CH - 4002 Basel|
Phone: (41) 61 - 280 80 80
Fax: (41) 61 - 280 91 00
Web page: http://www.bis.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bernadette A. Minton & René Stulz & Rohan Williamson, 2005.
"How Much Do Banks Use Credit Derivatives to Reduce Risk?,"
NBER Working Papers
11579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Minton, Bernadette A. & Stulz, Rene M. & Williamson, Rohan, 2005. "How Much Do Banks Use Credit Derivatives to Reduce Risk?," Working Paper Series 2005-17, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007.
"Network models and financial stability,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
- Dirk Schoenmaker, 1992. "Institutional Separation between Supervisory and Monetary Agencies," FMG Special Papers sp52, Financial Markets Group.
- Selva Demiralp & Brian Preslopsky & William C. Whitesell, 2004.
"Overnight interbank loan markets,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2004-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lelyveld, Iman van & Liedorp, Franka, 2004.
"Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector,"
651, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2005.
- Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004.
"Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
- Christian Upper & Andreas Worms, 2001. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: is there a danger of contagion?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 211-229 Bank for International Settlements.
- Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006.
"Risk Assessment for Banking Systems,"
INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta C. Saxena, 2005.
"Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery,"
- Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2005. "Growth Dynamics; The Myth of Economic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 05/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2007. "Growth dynamics: the myth of economic recovery," BIS Working Papers 226, Bank for International Settlements.
- Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
- Glenn Hoggarth & Ricardo Reis & Victoria Saporta, 2001.
"Costs of banking system instability: some empirical evidence,"
Bank of England working papers
144, Bank of England.
- Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
- Iori, Giulia & De Masi, Giulia & Precup, Ovidiu Vasile & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Caldarelli, Guido, 2008.
"A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278, January.
- Iori, G. & Masi, G. D. & Precup, O. V. & Gabbi, G. & Caldarelli, G., 2005. "A network analysis of the Italian oversight money market," Working Papers 05/05, Department of Economics, City University London.
- Iori, Giulia & Jafarey, Saqib & Padilla, Francisco G., 2006. "Systemic risk on the interbank market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 525-542, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Beslmeisl)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.