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Are Banking Systems Increasingly Fragile ? Investigating Financial Institutions’ CDS Returns Extreme Co-Movements

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  • Dima Rahman

Abstract

This paper investigates potential contagion among the major financial institutions in developed economies. Using Credit Default Swaps (CDS) premia as a measure of credit or counterparty risk, our analysis focuses on the extreme co-movements of Financial Institutions' default contracts during the high level of stress undergone by the CDS markets in the aftermath of the 2007 sub-prime crisis. Our approach is twofold: first, under different tail dependence scenarios, we calibrate several multivariate linear propagation models of constant correlation. Our Monte Carlo simulation study finds evidence of contagion for Financial Institutions- notably in the US-and captures a non-normal dependence structure in the tails for the traded contracts. Second, we estimate a multivariate Dynamic Conditional Correlation-GARCH (DCC-GARCH) model, and demonstrate significant ARCH and GARCH effects, as well as time-varying correlations in CDS spreads variations. Our overall analysis rejects the assumption of constant correlation. More importantly, it advocates changing structures in tail dependence for CDS series during times of financial turmoil as an important feature of banks’ increased fragility.

Suggested Citation

  • Dima Rahman, 2009. "Are Banking Systems Increasingly Fragile ? Investigating Financial Institutions’ CDS Returns Extreme Co-Movements," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-34, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2009-34
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    File URL: http://economix.fr/pdf/dt/2009/WP_EcoX_2009-34.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brechmann, Eike C. & Hendrich, Katharina & Czado, Claudia, 2013. "Conditional copula simulation for systemic risk stress testing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 722-732.
    2. repec:zbw:rwirep:0243 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ansgar Belke & Christian Gokus, 2011. "Volatility Patterns of CDS, Bond and Stock Markets before and during the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Major Financial Institutions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1107, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Christian Gokus, 2011. "Volatility Patterns of CDS, Bond and Stock Markets Before and During the Financial Crisis – Evidence from Major Financial Institutions," Ruhr Economic Papers 0243, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank fragility; Counterparty risk; Financial crises; Extreme co-movements; Conditional correlation; Multivariate GARCH; Monte Carlo simulation;

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