IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/pacecr/v15y2010i3p364-384.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing For Asset Market Linkages: A New Approach Based On Time-Varying Copulas

Author

Listed:
  • Hans Manner
  • Bertrand Candelon

Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach based on time-varying copulas to test for the presence of increases in stock market interdependence (also known as shift contagion) after a financial crisis. We discuss the importance of considering simultaneously separate breaks in volatility and dependence. Without such consideration, the contagion test turns out to be biased. A sequential algorithm is proposed to tackle this problem. Applied to the recent 1997 Asian crisis, the analysis confirms that breaks in variances always precede those in the dependence parameter. Moreover, a significant 'J-shape' evolution of the dependence parameter is detected, supporting the idea of shift contagion. Copyright 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation 2010 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Manner & Bertrand Candelon, 2010. "Testing For Asset Market Linkages: A New Approach Based On Time-Varying Copulas," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 364-384, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:15:y:2010:i:3:p:364-384
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2010.00508.x
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas, 2007. "Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1245-1277, April.
    3. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    4. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    5. Candelon, Bertrand & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2001. "On the reliability of Chow-type tests for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 155-160, November.
    6. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    8. Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
    9. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    10. repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
    12. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation and model selection of semiparametric copula-based multivariate dynamic models under copula misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 125-154.
    13. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
    14. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Estimation of multivariate models for time series of possibly different lengths," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 147-173.
    15. Lorenzo Cappiello & Bruno Gérard & Arjan Kadareja & Simone Manganelli, 2014. "Measuring Comovements by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 12(4), pages 645-678.
    16. Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
    17. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    18. Ramchand, Latha & Susmel, Raul, 1998. "Volatility and cross correlation across major stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 397-416, October.
    19. Mardi Dungey & Diana Zhumabekova, 2001. "Testing for contagion using correlations: some words of caution," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    20. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
    21. Gombay, Edit & Horváth, Lajos, 1996. "On the Rate of Approximations for Maximum Likelihood Tests in Change-Point Models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 120-152, January.
    22. Granger, Clive W.J. & Terasvirta, Timo & Patton, Andrew J., 2006. "Common factors in conditional distributions for bivariate time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 43-57, May.
    23. Candelon, Bertrand & Hecq, Alain & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2005. "Measuring common cyclical features during financial turmoil: Evidence of interdependence not contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1317-1334, December.
    24. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    25. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2008. "New Evidence of Asymmetric Dependence Structures in International Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(03), pages 787-815, September.
    26. Markus Junker & Angelika May, 2005. "Measurement of aggregate risk with copulas," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(3), pages 428-454, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Guang-Di & Chen, Chia-Shih, 2014. "Evidence of contagion in global REITs investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 148-158.
    2. Silvapulle, Param & Fenech, Jean Pierre & Thomas, Alice & Brooks, Rob, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads and contagion in the peripheral EU countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 83-92.
    3. Almeida, Carlos & Czado, Claudia, 2012. "Efficient Bayesian inference for stochastic time-varying copula models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1511-1527.
    4. Manner, Hans & Blatt, Dominik & Candelon, Bertrand, 2014. "Detecting financial contagion in a multivariate system," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100411, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Blatt, Dominik & Candelon, Bertrand & Manner, Hans, 2015. "Detecting contagion in a multivariate time series system: An application to sovereign bond markets in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-13.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:15:y:2010:i:3:p:364-384. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1361-374X .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.