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Measuring the subprime crisis contagion: Evidence of change point analysis of copula functions

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  • Ye, Wuyi
  • Liu, Xiaoquan
  • Miao, Baiqi

Abstract

In this paper, we first determine the existence of structural changes in the dependence between time series of equity index returns of two markets using the change point testing method. The method is based on Archimedean copula functions, which are able to comprehensively describe dependence characteristics of random variables. The degree of financial contagion between markets is subsequently estimated using the tail dependence coefficient of copula functions before and after the change point. We empirically test our method by investigating financial contagion during the subprime crisis between the US S&P 500 index and five Asian markets, namely China, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Our results show that a statistically significant change point exists in the dependence between the US market and all Asian stock markets except Taiwan. The upper tail dependence is larger after the time of change, implying the existence of contagion during the banking crisis between the US and the Asian economies. The degree of financial contagion is also estimated and found to be consistent with market events and media reports during that period.

Suggested Citation

  • Ye, Wuyi & Liu, Xiaoquan & Miao, Baiqi, 2012. "Measuring the subprime crisis contagion: Evidence of change point analysis of copula functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 96-103.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:222:y:2012:i:1:p:96-103
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2012.04.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jayech, Selma, 2016. "The contagion channels of July–August-2011 stock market crash: A DAG-copula based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 631-646.
    2. repec:spr:annopr:v:268:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-016-2362-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:ejores:v:277:y:2019:i:3:p:1046-1059 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio, 2013. "Estimating non-linear serial and cross-interdependence between financial assets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 837-846.
    5. Reboredo, Juan C. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2015. "An analysis of dependence between Central and Eastern European stock markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 474-490.
    6. Wu, Shaomin, 2014. "Construction of asymmetric copulas and its application in two-dimensional reliability modelling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(2), pages 476-485.
    7. repec:eee:ejores:v:269:y:2018:i:3:p:1137-1153 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ye, Wuyi & Luo, Kebing & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2017. "Time-varying quantile association regression model with applications to financial contagion and VaR," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 1015-1028.
    9. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M. & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Berger, Theo & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2017. "Multivariate dependence and portfolio optimization algorithms under illiquid market scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 1121-1131.
    10. Bekiros, Stelios & Hernandez, Jose Arreola & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "Multivariate dependence risk and portfolio optimization: An application to mining stock portfolios," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 1-11.
    11. Zhu, Xiaoqian & Xie, Yongjia & Li, Jianping & Wu, Dengsheng, 2015. "Change point detection for subprime crisis in American banking: From the perspective of risk dependence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-28.
    12. repec:eee:phsmap:v:480:y:2017:i:c:p:10-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Mitra, Sovan & Date, Paresh & Mamon, Rogemar & Wang, I-Chieh, 2013. "Pricing and risk management of interest rate swaps," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(1), pages 102-111.
    14. repec:eee:quaeco:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:56-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Aloui, Chaker & Hkiri, Besma, 2014. "Co-movements of GCC emerging stock markets: New evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 421-431.
    16. repec:eee:intfin:v:53:y:2018:i:c:p:263-286 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Gregor Wei{ss} & Marcus Scheffer, 2012. "Smooth Nonparametric Bernstein Vine Copulas," Papers 1210.2043, arXiv.org.

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