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Modelling international financial returns with a multivariate regime switching copula

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  • Loran , CHOLLETTE
  • Andreas , HEINEN
  • Alfonso , VALDESOGO

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE))

Abstract

In order to capture observed asymmetric dependence in international financial returns, we construct a multivariate regime-switching model of copula. We model dependence with one Gaussian and one canonical vine copula regime. Canonical vines are construted from bivariate conditional copulas and provide a very flexible way of characterizig dependence in multivariate settings. We apply the model to returns from the G5 and Latin American regions, and document two main findings. First, we discover that models with canonical vines generally dominate alternative dependence structures. Second, the choice of copula is important for risk management, because it modifies the Value at Risk (VaR) of international portfolio returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Loran , CHOLLETTE & Andreas , HEINEN & Alfonso , VALDESOGO, 2008. "Modelling international financial returns with a multivariate regime switching copula," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008011, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvec:2008011
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asymmetric dependence; canonical vine copula; international returns; regime-switching; risk management; Value-at-Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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