IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/men/wpaper/63_2016.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Linkages between CDS, bond and stock markets: Evidence from Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Veronika Kajurova

    () (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemedelska 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic)

  • Jana Hvozdenska

    () (Depatment of Finance, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University, Lipova 41a, 602 00 Brno, Czech Republic)

Abstract

Nowadays, when information has a significant role in financial markets and is reflected in prices of instruments very rapidly, investors, who are interested in arbitrage, hedging or speculation activities in markets, and other market participants would like to know in which market information is embedded into price more rapidly. The aim of the presented paper is to find out if new information is reflected in prices earlier in credit default swap market or in stock or bond markets and to confirm or disprove whether the theoretical assumptions about the links between markets hold. Panel co-integration tests, panel vector error correction models and panel Granger causality tests are employed to examine the long-term and short-term interactions between markets. Assessing the leading role of chosen market within price discovery process can be beneficial for all market participants within their decision making processes. Our results indicate that the relations between credit default swap and stock markets are in accordance with the theoretical assumptions. The results on the relationship between credit default swap and bond markets met the theoretical assumptions during the crisis period, however the role of these two markets has changed in the post-crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Veronika Kajurova & Jana Hvozdenska, 2016. "Linkages between CDS, bond and stock markets: Evidence from Europe," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2016-63, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:men:wpaper:63_2016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ftp.mendelu.cz/RePEc/men/wpaper/63_2016.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Causality, cointegration, and control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 551-559.
    2. Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2014. "Are All Credit Default Swap Databases Equal?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(4), pages 677-713, September.
    3. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Thuraisamy, Kannan Sivananthan, 2014. "An analysis of price discovery from panel data models of CDS and equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 167-177.
    5. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    6. Suk-Joong Kim & Fari Moshirian & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Evolution of International Stock and Bond Market Integration: Influence of the European Monetary Union," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 12, pages 391-428, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Kwan, Simon H., 1996. "Firm-specific information and the correlation between individual stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 63-80, January.
    8. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    9. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    10. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    11. Arce, Oscar & Mayordomo, Sergio & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Credit-risk valuation in the sovereign CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 124-145.
    12. Schiereck, D. & Trutwein, P., 2011. "The Fast and the Furious – Stock Returns and CDS of Financial Institutions under Stress," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 56481, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    13. Tsai, Hui-Ju, 2014. "The informational efficiency of bonds and stocks: The role of institutional sized bond trades," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 34-45.
    14. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2016. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 126-140.
    15. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    17. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    18. Forte, Santiago & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2009. "Credit spreads: An empirical analysis on the informational content of stocks, bonds, and CDS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2013-2025, November.
    19. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment‐Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
    20. Trutwein, Patrick & Schiereck, Dirk, 2011. "The fast and the furious--Stock returns and CDS of financial institutions under stress," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 157-175, April.
    21. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2001. "The Danish stock and bond markets: comovement, return predictability and variance decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 243-271, July.
    22. Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2013. "The Interactions between the Credit Default Swap and the Bond Markets in Financial Turmoil," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 492-505, August.
    23. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    24. Haibin Zhu, 2006. "An Empirical Comparison of Credit Spreads between the Bond Market and the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 211-235, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert, 2018. "Is Thailand’s credit default swap market linked to bond and stock markets? Evidence from the term structure of credit spreads," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 324-341.
    2. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    3. da Silva, Paulo Pereira & Rebelo, Paulo Tomaz & Afonso, Cristina, 2014. "Tail dependence of financial stocks and CDS markets: Evidence using copula methods and simulation-based inference," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-27.
    4. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
    5. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "An analysis of sectoral equity and CDS spreads," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 80-93.
    6. Griffin, Paul A. & Lont, David H., 2018. "Game changer? The impact of the VW emission-cheating scandal on the interrelation between large automakers’ equity and credit markets," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 179-196.
    7. Zubair Ali Raja & William J. Procasky & Renee Oyotode-Adebile, 2020. "The Relative Role of Sovereign CDS and Bond Markets in Efficiently Pricing Emerging Market Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(3), pages 296-325, December.
    8. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela & Tosi, Alessandra, 2021. "Time-varying price discovery in sovereign credit markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    9. Santiago Forte & Lidija Lovreta, 2015. "Time†Varying Credit Risk Discovery in the Stock and CDS Markets: Evidence from Quiet and Crisis Times," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(3), pages 430-461, June.
    10. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2011. "Oil prices, nuclear energy consumption, and economic growth: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2111-2120, April.
    11. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Balcilar, Mehmet & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Distribution specific dependence and causality between industry-level U.S. credit and stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 114-133.
    12. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2011. "Multivariate Granger causality between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, FDI (foreign direct investment) and GDP (gross domestic product): Evidence from a panel of BRIC (Brazil, Russian Federation, I," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 685-693.
    13. Edmore Mahembe & Nicholas Mbaya Odhiambo, 2019. "Foreign aid, poverty and economic growth in developing countries: A dynamic panel data causality analysis," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1626321-162, January.
    14. El-Shazly, Alaa, 2013. "Electricity demand analysis and forecasting: A panel cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 251-258.
    15. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2010. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in BRIC countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7850-7860, December.
    16. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Asandului, Mircea & Lupu, Dan & Mursa, Gabriel Claudiu & Muşetescu, Radu, 2015. "Dynamic relations between CDS and stock markets in Eastern European countries," MPRA Paper 95506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Juan Carlos Aquino & N. R. Ramírez-Rondán, 2020. "Estimating factor shares from nonstationary panel data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2353-2380, May.
    19. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Perrakis, Stylianos & Zhong, Rui, 2017. "Price discovery in equity and CDS markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-46.
    20. Ioannis Kostakis, 2020. "Is Tourism a Key Factor for Economic Growth? Fresh Evidence from South Europe Using Panel Cointegration and PVAR Analyses," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 123-138, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bond market; CDS market; information; panel data; stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:men:wpaper:63_2016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Luděk Kouba). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/femencz.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.