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The bank-sovereign nexus: Evidence from a non-bailout episode

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  • Caporin, Massimiliano
  • Natvik, Gisle J.
  • Ravazzolo, Francesco
  • Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

Abstract

We explore the interplay between sovereign and bank credit risk in a setting where Danish authorities first let two Danish banks default and then left the country’s largest bank, Danske Bank, to recapitalize privately. We find that the correlation between bank and sovereign credit default swap (CDS) rates changed with these events. Following the non-bailout events, the sensitivity to external shocks, proxied by CDS rates on the European banking sector, declined both for Danske Bank and for Danish sovereign debt. After Danske Bank’s recapitalization, its exposure to the European banking sector reappeared while that did not happen for Danish sovereign debt. The decoupling between CDS rates on sovereign and private bank debt indicates that the vicious feedback loop between bank and sovereign risk weakened after the non-bailout policies were introduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Caporin, Massimiliano & Natvik, Gisle J. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2019. "The bank-sovereign nexus: Evidence from a non-bailout episode," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 181-196.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:53:y:2019:i:c:p:181-196
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2019.07.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Soenen & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2020. "ECB Monetary Policy and Bank Default Risk," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 20/997, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Soenen, Nicolas & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2022. "ECB monetary policy and bank default risk☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Velliscig, Giulio & Floreani, Josanco & Polato, Maurizio, 2022. "How do bail-in amendments in Directive (EU) 2017/2399 affect the subordinated bond yields of EU G-SIBs?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 173-189.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bailout expectation; Risk; CDS; Spillover; Quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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