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Evaluating Value-at-Risk models with desk-level data

  • Jeremy Berkowitz

    ()

    (University of Houston)

  • Peter Christoffersen

    ()

    (McGill University)

  • Denis Pelletier

    ()

    (Department of Economics, North Carolina State University)

We present new evidence on disaggregated profit and loss and VaR forecasts obtained from a large international commercial bank. Our dataset includes daily P/L generated by four separate business lines within the bank. All four business lines are involved in securities trading and each is observed daily for a period of at least two years. Given this rich dataset, we provide an integrated, unifying framework for assessing the accuracy of VaR forecasts. A thorough Monte Carlo comparison of the various methods is conducted to provide guidance as to which of these many tests have the best finite-sample size and power properties. The Caviar test of Engle and Manganelli (2004) performs best overall but duration-based tests also perform well in many cases.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.ncsu.edu/pub/ncsu/economics/RePEc/pdf/BCP_12Dec06.pdf
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Paper provided by North Carolina State University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 010.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2005
Date of revision: Dec 2006
Handle: RePEc:ncs:wpaper:010
Contact details of provider: Phone: (919) 515-3274
Web page: http://www.mgt.ncsu.edu/faculty/economics.html

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Manganelli, Simone, 1999. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt06m3d6nv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  2. Suleyman Basak & Alex Shapiro, . "Value-at-Risk Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 6-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  3. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  4. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2006. "Monte Carlo tests with nuisance parameters: A general approach to finite-sample inference and nonstandard asymptotics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 443-477, August.
  5. Domenico Cuoco & Hua He & Sergei Isaenko, 2004. "Optimal Dynamic Trading Strategies with Risk Limits," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2567, Yale School of Management.
  6. Peter Christoffersen & Denis Pelletier, 2003. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-05, CIRANO.
  7. James W. Taylor, 2005. "Generating Volatility Forecasts from Value at Risk Estimates," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 712-725, May.
  8. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Gordon J. Alexander & Alexandre M. Baptista, 2004. "A Comparison of VaR and CVaR Constraints on Portfolio Selection with the Mean-Variance Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1261-1273, September.
  10. Paramasamy, S., 1992. "On the multivariate Kolmogorov-Smirnov distribution," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 149-155, September.
  11. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  12. Steven N. Durlauf, 1992. "Spectral Based Testing of the Martingale Hypothesis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Jeremy Berkowitz & James O'Brien, 2002. "How Accurate Are Value-at-Risk Models at Commercial Banks?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1093-1111, 06.
  15. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
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