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Systemic risk measures: the simpler the better

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  • Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Juan Ignacio
  • Rodríguez-Moreno, María

Abstract

We compute six different sets of systemic risk measures for a sample of the 20 biggest European and 13 biggest US banks from January 2004 to November 2009. The six measures are based on i) Principal components of the bank’s Credit Default Swaps (CDSs), ii) Interbank interest rate spreads, iii) Structural credit risk models, iv) Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) indexes and their tranches, v) Multivariate densities computed from CDS spreads and vi) Co-Risk measures. We then rank the measures using three different criteria: i) Causality tests, ii) Price discovery tests and iii) their correlation with an index of systemic events. For the European and US markets, the best indicators are the first Principal Component of the single-name CDSs and the LIBOR-OIS or LIBOR-TBILL spreads, respectively, whereas the least reliable indicators are the Co-Risk measures and the systemic spreads extracted from the CDO indexes and their tranches.

Suggested Citation

  • Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Juan Ignacio & Rodríguez-Moreno, María, 2010. "Systemic risk measures: the simpler the better," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 9291, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  • Handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:9291
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    Cited by:

    1. Dicembrino, Claudio & Scandizzo, Pasquale Lucio, 2011. "Can portfolio diversification increase systemic risk? evidence from the U.S and European mutual funds market," MPRA Paper 33715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Simone Varotto & Lei Zhao, 2014. "Systemic Risk and Bank Size," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-17, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    3. Gorea, Denis & Radev, Deyan, 2014. "The euro area sovereign debt crisis: Can contagion spread from the periphery to the core?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 78-100.
    4. Christian Thimann, 2014. "How Insurers Differ from Banks: A Primer on Systemic Regulation," Working Papers halshs-01074933, HAL.
    5. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    6. Stolbov, Mikhail, 2014. "The causal linkages between sovereign CDS prices for the BRICS and major European economies," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-43.
    7. Radev, Deyan, 2013. "Systemic risk and sovereign debt in the Euro area," SAFE Working Paper Series 37, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    8. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Wang, Weining & Yu, Lining, 2016. "TENET: Tail-Event driven NETwork risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 499-513.
    9. Nicholas Apergis & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2015. "Systemic Sovereign Risk and Asset Prices: Evidence from the CDS Market, Stressed European Economies and Nonlinear Causality Tests," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(2), pages 106-126, April.
    10. Castro, Carlos & Ferrari, Stijn, 2014. "Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-14.
    11. Arce, Oscar & Mayordomo, Sergio & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Credit-risk valuation in the sovereign CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 124-145.
    12. Mayordomo, Sergio & Rodriguez-Moreno, Maria & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2014. "Derivatives holdings and systemic risk in the U.S. banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 84-104.
    13. Maria Abascal & Tatiana Alonso & Sergio Mayordomo, 2013. "Fragmentation in European Financial Markets: Measures, Determinants, and Policy Solutions," Working Papers 1322, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    14. Ivailo Arsov & Elie Canetti & Laura E. Kodres & Srobona Mitra, 2013. "Near-Coincident Indicators of Systemic Stress," IMF Working Papers 13/115, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Antón, Miguel & Mayordomo, Sergio & Rodríguez‐Moreno, María, 2018. "Dealing with dealers: Sovereign CDS comovements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 96-112.
    16. Thimann, Christian, 2014. "How insurers differ from banks: a primer on systemic regulation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61218, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Elena Kalotychou & Eli Remolona & Eliza Wu, 2014. "What Makes Systemic Risk Systemic? Contagion and Spillovers in the International Sovereign Debt Market," Working Papers 072014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    18. Yun, Jaeho & Moon, Hyejung, 2014. "Measuring systemic risk in the Korean banking sector via dynamic conditional correlation models," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 94-114.
    19. Liu, Xiaochun, 2013. "Systemic Risk of Commercial Banks: A Markov-Switching Quantile Autoregression Approach," MPRA Paper 55801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Olivier de Bandt & Jean-Cyprien Héam & Claire Labonne & Santiago Tavolaro, 2015. "La mesure du risque systémique après la crise financière," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 66(3), pages 481-500.
    21. Wu, Eliza & Erdem, Magdalena & Kalotychou, Elena & Remolona, Eli, 2016. "The anatomy of sovereign risk contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 264-286.
    22. O. de Bandt & J.-C. Héam & C. Labonne & S. Tavolaro, 2013. "Measuring Systemic Risk in a Post-Crisis World," Débats économiques et financiers 6, Banque de France.
    23. Jaeho Yun & Hyejung Moon, 2013. "Measuring Systemic Risk in the Korean Banking Sector via Dynamic Conditional Correlation Models," Working Papers 2013-27, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    24. Gustavo Silva Araújo & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2014. "Indicadores Antecedentes Extraídos de Preços de Ativos em Corte Transversal," Working Papers Series 361, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    25. Alexandra Popescu & Camelia Turcu, 2014. "Systemic Sovereign Risk in Europe: an MES and CES Approach," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 124(6), pages 899-925.

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    Keywords

    CoVaR;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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