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Systemic risk diagnostics: coincident indicators and early warning signals

Author

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  • Schwaab, Bernd
  • Koopman, Siem Jan
  • Lucas, André

Abstract

We propose a novel framework to assess financial system risk. Using a dynamic factor framework based on state-space methods, we construct coincident measures ( JEL Classification: G21, C33

Suggested Citation

  • Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2011. "Systemic risk diagnostics: coincident indicators and early warning signals," Working Paper Series 1327, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111327
    Note: 955417
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2012. "The Index of the Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa and Bayesian Estimates for IFS Vector-Autoregressive Model," MPRA Paper 42173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Grilli, Ruggero & Giri, Federico & Gallegati, Mauro, 2020. "Collateral rehypothecation, safe asset scarcity, and unconventional monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 633-645.
    3. Martín Saldías, 2012. "Systemic risk analysis and option-based theory and information," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2015. "Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 685-738.
    5. Pinar Yesin, 2013. "Foreign currency loans and systemic risk in Europe," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 95(May), pages 219-236.
    6. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2013. "To the Problem of Financial Safety Estimation: the Index of Financial Safety of Turkey," MPRA Paper 47673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bierth, Christopher & Irresberger, Felix & Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2015. "Systemic risk of insurers around the globe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 232-245.
    8. Christian Meine & Hendrik Supper & Gregor N. F. Weiß, 2016. "Is Tail Risk Priced in Credit Default Swap Premia?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 287-336.
    9. Rodríguez-Moreno, María & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Systemic risk measures: The simpler the better?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1817-1831.
    10. Buse, Rebekka & Schienle, Melanie, 2019. "Measuring connectedness of euro area sovereign risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-44.
    11. Peter Claeys & Borek Vašícek, 2013. "“How systemic is Spain for Europe?”," AQR Working Papers 201301, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Feb 2013.
    12. Olivier de Bandt & Jean-Cyprien Héam & Claire Labonne & Santiago Tavolaro, 2015. "La mesure du risque systémique après la crise financière," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 66(3), pages 481-500.
    13. O. de Bandt & J.-C. Héam & C. Labonne & S. Tavolaro, 2013. "Measuring Systemic Risk in a Post-Crisis World," Débats économiques et financiers 6, Banque de France.
    14. Xingxing Ye & Raphael Douady, 2018. "Systemic Risk Indicators Based on Nonlinear PolyModel," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, December.
    15. Alexey Vasilenko, 2018. "Systemic Risk and Financial Fragility in the Chinese Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model Approach," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps30, Bank of Russia.
    16. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Schaumburg, Julia & Schienle, Melanie, 2014. "Forecasting systemic impact in financial networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 781-794.
    17. Ms. Srobona Mitra & Mr. Ivailo Arsov & Mr. Elie Canetti & Ms. Laura E. Kodres, 2013. "Near-Coincident Indicators of Systemic Stress," IMF Working Papers 2013/115, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Mühlnickel, Janina, 2014. "Why do some insurers become systemically relevant?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 95-117.
    19. Claudio Morana, 2013. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks: New Insights on the US OIS SPreads Term Structure," Working Papers 233, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2013.
    20. Tomas Adam & Sona Benecka, 2013. "Financial Stress Spillover and Financial Linkages between the Euro Area and the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 46-64, March.
    21. Antonio Di Cesare & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2018. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Indicators," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    22. Eleonora Iachini & Stefano Nobili, 2014. "An indicator of systemic liquidity risk in the Italian financial markets," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 217, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. Fiordelisi, Franco & Marqués-Ibañez, David, 2013. "Is bank default risk systematic?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2000-2010.
    24. Carsten Detken & Olaf Weeken & Lucia Alessi & Diana Bonfim & Miguel M. Boucinha & Christian Castro & Sebastian Frontczak & Gaston Giordana & Julia Giese & Nadya Jahn & Jan Kakes & Benjamin Klaus & Jan, 2014. "Operationalising the countercyclical capital buffer: indicator selection, threshold identification and calibration options," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 05, European Systemic Risk Board.
    25. R. Pianeti & R. Giacometti, 2015. "Estimating the probability of multiple EU sovereign defaults using CDS and bond data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 61-78, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit portfolio models; financial crisis; frailty-correlated defaults; state space methods; systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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