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Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada

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  • Miroslav Misina
  • Greg Tkacz

Abstract

Historical narratives typically associate financial crises with credit expansions and asset price misalignments. The question is whether some combination of measures of credit and asset prices can be used to predict these events. Borio and Lowe (2002) answer this question in the affirmative for a sample of 34 countries, but the question is surprisingly difficult to answer for individual developed countries that have faced very few, if any, financial crises in the past. To circumvent this problem, we focus on financial stress and ask whether credit and asset price movements can help predict it. To measure financial stress, we use the Financial Stress Index (FSI) developed by Illing and Liu (2006). Other innovations include the estimation and forecasting using both linear and endogenous threshold models, and a wide range of asset prices (stock and housing prices, for example). The exercise is performed for Canada, but the methodology is suitable for any country that fits the above description.

Suggested Citation

  • Miroslav Misina & Greg Tkacz, 2008. "Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada," Staff Working Papers 08-10, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:08-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Elke Hanschel & Pierre Monnin, 2005. "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 431-49, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Toward an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: “Fuzzy” Measurement and Its Consequences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 4, pages 063-123, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Jahn, Nadya & Kick, Thomas, 2012. "Early warning indicators for the German banking system: A macroprudential analysis," Discussion Papers 27/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2011. "Systemic risk diagnostics: coincident indicators and early warning signals," Working Paper Series 1327, European Central Bank.
    4. Tihana Skrinjaric, 2022. "Macroeconomic effects of systemic stress: a rolling spillover index approach," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 109-140.
    5. Layal MansourIshrakieh & Leila Dagher & Sadika El Hariri, 2020. "A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country : The case of Lebanon," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 43-52.
    6. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2012. "The Index of the Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa and Bayesian Estimates for IFS Vector-Autoregressive Model," MPRA Paper 42173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bernd Schwaab & Andre Lucas & Siem Jan Koopman, 2010. "Systemic Risk Diagnostics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-104/2/DSF 2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 29 Nov 2010.
    8. Tomas Adam & Sona Benecka & Jakub Mateju, 2014. "Risk Aversion, Financial Stress and Their Non-Linear Impact on Exchange Rates," Working Papers 2014/07, Czech National Bank.
    9. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2018. "The Institute of Financial Economics Financial Stress Index (IFEFSI) for Lebanon," MPRA Paper 116054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal, 2020. "The impact of Israeli Geopolitical Risks on the Lebanese Financial Market: A Destabilizer Multiplier," MPRA Paper 99376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2013. "To the Problem of Financial Safety Estimation: the Index of Financial Safety of Turkey," MPRA Paper 47673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Adam, Tomáš & Benecká, Soňa & Matějů, Jakub, 2018. "Financial stress and its non-linear impact on CEE exchange rates," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 346-360.
    13. Apostolakis, George & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2015. "Financial stress spillovers across the banking, securities and foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-21.
    14. George Apostolakis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2019. "Financial Stability, Monetary Stability and Growth: a PVAR Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 157-178, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit and credit aggregates; Financial stability;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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