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Early warning indicators for the German banking system: A macroprudential analysis

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  • Jahn, Nadya
  • Kick, Thomas

Abstract

Over the past two decades, Germany experienced several periods of banking system instability rather than full-blown banking system crises. In this paper we introduce a continuous and forward-looking stability indicator for the banking system based on information on all financial institutions in Germany between 1995 and 2010. Explaining this measure by means of panel regression techniques, we identify significant macroprudential early warning indicators (such as asset price indicators, leading indicators for the business cycle and monetary indicators) and spillover effects. Whereas international spillovers play a significant role across all banking sectors, regional spillovers and the credit-to-GDP ratio are more important for cooperative banks and less relevant for commercial banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jahn, Nadya & Kick, Thomas, 2012. "Early warning indicators for the German banking system: A macroprudential analysis," Discussion Papers 27/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:272012
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    Cited by:

    1. Kick, Thomas & Nehring, Inge & Schertler, Andrea, 2017. "Do all new brooms sweep clean? Evidence for outside bank appointments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 135-151.
    2. Dr. Michael Sigmund & Dr. Ingrid Stein, 2017. "What predicts Financial (In)Stability? A Bayesian Approach," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 50(3), pages 299-336.
    3. Olivier de Bandt & Jean-Cyprien Héam & Claire Labonne & Santiago Tavolaro, 2015. "La mesure du risque systémique après la crise financière," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 66(3), pages 481-500.
    4. O. de Bandt & J.-C. Héam & C. Labonne & S. Tavolaro, 2013. "Measuring Systemic Risk in a Post-Crisis World," Débats économiques et financiers 6, Banque de France.
    5. Molterer, Manuel, 2019. "Tougher than the rest? The resilience of specialized financial intermediation to macroeconomic shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 163-174.
    6. Kick, Thomas & Prieto, Esteban, 2013. "Bank Risk Taking and Competition: Evidence from Regional Banking Markets," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79919, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Paola Bongini & Małgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska & Paweł Smaga & Bartosz Witkowski, 2018. "In search of a measure of banking sector distress: empirical study of CESEE banking sectors," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 242-257, August.
    8. Fabrizio Ferriani & Wanda Cornacchia & Paolo Farroni & Eliana Ferrara & Francesco Guarino & Francesco Pisanti, 2019. "An early warning system for less significant Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 480, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Thomas Kick & Esteban Prieto, 2015. "Bank Risk and Competition: Evidence from Regional Banking Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1185-1222.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Early Warning Indicators; Banking System Stability; Regional Spillover Effects; Panel Regression Techniques;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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