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Early warning indicators for the German banking system: A macroprudential analysis

  • Jahn, Nadya
  • Kick, Thomas

Over the past two decades, Germany experienced several periods of banking system instability rather than full-blown banking system crises. In this paper we introduce a continuous and forward-looking stability indicator for the banking system based on information on all financial institutions in Germany between 1995 and 2010. Explaining this measure by means of panel regression techniques, we identify significant macroprudential early warning indicators (such as asset price indicators, leading indicators for the business cycle and monetary indicators) and spillover effects. Whereas international spillovers play a significant role across all banking sectors, regional spillovers and the credit-to-GDP ratio are more important for cooperative banks and less relevant for commercial banks.

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 27/2012.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:272012
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  1. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
  2. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2010. "Risk, Uncertainty and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 8154, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2008. "Real estate markets and bank distress," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Koetter, Michael & Kick, Thomas, 2007. "Slippery slopes of stress: ordered failure events in German banking," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
  6. Behr, Andreas & Kamp, Andreas & Memmel, Christoph & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2007. "Diversification and the banks' risk-return-characteristics: evidence from loan portfolios of German banks," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Fichtner, Ferdinand & Rüffer, Rasmus & Schnatz, Bernd, 2009. "Leading indicators in a globalised world," Working Paper Series 1125, European Central Bank.
  8. von Hagen, Jürgen & Ho, Tai-kuang, 2004. "Money market pressure and the determinants of baning crises," ZEI Working Papers B 20-2004, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  9. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2005. "Cross-country empirical studies of systemic bank distress : a survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3719, The World Bank.
  10. Miroslav Misina & Greg Tkacz, 2008. "Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada," Working Papers 08-10, Bank of Canada.
  11. Miguel A. Segoviano & Charles Goodhart, 2009. "Banking stability measures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24416, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  12. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Optimal Weights and Stress Banking Indexes," IRENE Working Papers 13-02, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
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