A macro stress test model of credit risk for the Brazilian banking sector
This paper proposes a model to conduct macro stress test of credit risk for the banking sector based on scenario analysis. We employ an original bank-level data set that splits bank credit portfolios in 21 granular categories, covering household and corporate loans. The results corroborate the presence of a strong procyclical behavior of credit quality, and show a robust negative relationship between the logistic transformation of non-performing loans (NPLs) and GDP growth, with a lag response of up to three quarters. The results also indicate that the procyclical behavior of loan quality varies across credit types. This is novel in the literature and suggests that banks with larger exposures to highly procyclical credit types and economic sectors would tend to undergo sharper deterioration in the quality of their credit portfolios during an economic downturn. Lack of sufficient portfolio granularity in macro stress testing fails to capture these effects and thus introduces a source of bias that tends to underestimate the tail losses stemming from the riskier banks in a system.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Antonella Foglia, 2009. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Survey of Authorities' Aproaches," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 9-45, September.
- Coffinet, J. & Lin, S. & Martin, C., 2009. "Stress testing French banks' income subcomponents," Working papers 242, Banque de France.
- Theodore M. Barnhill & Marcos R. Souto & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "An Analysis of Off-Site Supervision of Banks' Profitability, Risk and Capital Adequacy: a portfolio simulation approach applied to brazilian banks," Working Papers Series 117, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Jeremy Berkowitz, 1999. "A coherent framework for stress-testing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rodriguez, Adolfo & Trucharte, Carlos, 2007. "Loss coverage and stress testing mortgage portfolios: A non-parametric approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 342-367, December.
- Michael Boss & Gerald Krenn & Claus Puhr & Markus Schwaiger, 2007. "Stress Testing the Exposure of Austrian Banks in Central and Eastern Europe," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 13, pages 115-134.
- Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
- Coffinet, Jerome & Lin, Surong, 2013.
"Stress-Testing Banks’ Profitability: The Case of French Banks,"
Journal of Financial Perspectives,
EY Global FS Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 67-80.
- Coffinet, J. & Lin, S., 2010. "Stress testing banks' profitability: the case of French banks," Working papers 306, Banque de France.
- Glenn Hoggarth & Andrew Logan & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Macro stress tests of UK banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 392-408 Bank for International Settlements.
- Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
- Klaus Duellmann & Martin Erdelmeier, 2009. "Crash Testing German Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 139-175, September.
- Blank, Sven & Buch, Claudia M. & Neugebauer, Katja, 2009.
"Shocks at large banks and banking sector distress: the Banking Granular Residual,"
Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies
2009,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Blank, Sven & Buch, Claudia M. & Neugebauer, Katja, 2009. "Shocks at large banks and banking sector distress: The Banking Granular Residual," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 353-373, December.
- Patricia Tecles & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2010.
"Determinants of Bank Efficiency: the case of Brazil,"
Working Papers Series
210, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Tecles, Patricia Langsch & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2010. "Determinants of bank efficiency: The case of Brazil," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(3), pages 1587-1598, December.
- Staub, Roberta B. & da Silva e Souza, Geraldo & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2010.
"Evolution of bank efficiency in Brazil: A DEA approach,"
European Journal of Operational Research,
Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 204-213, April.
- Roberta B. Staub & Geraldo Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2009. "Evolution of Bank Efficiency in Brazil: A DEA Approach," Working Papers Series 200, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Castrén, Olli & Dées, Stéphane & Zaher, Fadi, 2010. "Stress-testing euro area corporate default probabilities using a global macroeconomic model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 64-78, June.
- Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995.
"Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models,"
IFS Working Papers
W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
- Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Rodolphe Blavy, 2006. "Assessing Banking Sector Soundness in a Long-Term Framework: The Case of Venezuela," IMF Working Papers 06/225, International Monetary Fund.
- Kexue Liu & Jean Salvati & Renzo G. Avesani & Alin Mirestean, 2006. "Review and Implementation of Credit Risk Models of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP)," IMF Working Papers 06/134, International Monetary Fund.
- Sorge, Marco & Virolainen, Kimmo, 2006. "A comparative analysis of macro stress-testing methodologies with application to Finland," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 113-151, June.
- Pesola, Jarmo, 2001. "The role of macroeconomic shocks in banking crises," Research Discussion Papers 6/2001, Bank of Finland.
- Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tabak, Benjamin M. & Staub, Roberta B., 2007. "Assessing financial instability: The case of Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 188-202, June.
- Jan Willem van den End & Marco Hoeberichts & Mostafa Tabbae, 2006. "Modelling Scenario Analysis and Macro Stress-testing," DNB Working Papers 119, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Virolainen , Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:8:y:2012:i:2:p:69-83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.