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Crash Testing German Banks

  • Klaus Duellmann

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Martin Erdelmeier

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

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    In this paper we stress-test credit portfolios of twenty-eight German banks based on a Merton-type multifactor credit-risk model. The stress scenario is an economic downturn in the automobile sector. Although the percentage of loans in the automobile sector is relatively low for all banks in the sample, the expected loss conditional on the stress event increases substantially by 70–80 percent for the total portfolio. This result confirms the need to account for hidden sectoral concentration risk because the increase in expected loss is driven mainly by correlation effects with related industry sectors. Therefore, credit-risk dependencies between sectors have to be adequately captured even if the trigger event is confined to a single sector. Finally, we calculate the impact on banks’ own-funds ratios, which decrease on average from 12 percent to 11.4 percent due to the stress event, which indicates that banks overall remain well capitalized. These main results are robust against various robustness checks, namely those concerning the granularity of the credit portfolio, the level of intersector asset correlations, and a cross-sectional variation of intrasector asset correlations.

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    Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

    Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 139-175

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    Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:3:a:5
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    1. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    2. Lutz Hahnenstein, 2004. "Calibrating the CreditMetrics™ correlation concept — Empirical evidence from Germany," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 358-381, December.
    3. Samuel Hanson & M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann, 2005. "Scope for Credit Risk Diversification," IEPR Working Papers 05.18, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
    4. Lütkebohmert, Eva & Gordy, Michael B., 2007. "Granularity adjustment for Basel II," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    5. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    6. Elsinger, Helmut & Lehar, Alfred & Summer, Martin, 2005. "Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment," MPRA Paper 817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
    8. Klaus Düllmann & Nancy Masschelein, 2007. "A Tractable Model to Measure Sector Concentration Risk in Credit Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 55-79, October.
    9. Düllmann, Klaus & Scheicher, Martin & Schmieder, Christian, 2007. "Asset correlations and credit portfolio risk: an empirical analysis," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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