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Asset correlations and credit portfolio risk: an empirical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Düllmann, Klaus
  • Scheicher, Martin
  • Schmieder, Christian

Abstract

In credit risk modelling, the correlation of unobservable asset returns is a crucial component for the measurement of portfolio risk. In this paper, we estimate asset correlations from monthly time series of Moody's KMV asset values for around 2,000 European firms from 1996 to 2004. We compare correlation and value-atrisk (VaR) estimates in a one-factor or market model and a multi-factor or sector model. Our main finding is a complex interaction of credit risk correlations and default probabilities affecting total credit portfolio risk. Differentiation between industry sectors when using the sector model instead of the market model has only a secondary effect on credit portfolio risk, at least for the underlying credit portfolio. Averaging firm-dependent asset correlations on a sector level can, however, cause a substantial underestimation of the VaR in a portfolio with heterogeneous borrower size. This result holds for the market as well as the sector model. Furthermore, the VaR of the IRB model is more stable over time than the VaR of the market model and the sector model, while its distance from the other two models fluctuates over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Düllmann, Klaus & Scheicher, Martin & Schmieder, Christian, 2007. "Asset correlations and credit portfolio risk: an empirical analysis," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:6352
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Duellmann & Martin Erdelmeier, 2009. "Crash Testing German Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 139-175, September.
    2. Simone Varotto, 2008. "An Assessment of the Internal Rating Based Approach in Basel II," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2008-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    3. Mikael Juselius & Nikola Tarashev, 2022. "When uncertainty decouples expected and unexpected losses," BIS Working Papers 995, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Mr. Daniel C Hardy & Mr. Christian Schmieder, 2013. "Rules of Thumb for Bank Solvency Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2013/232, International Monetary Fund.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Byström, Hans, 2017. "The currency composition of firms' balance sheets, asset value correlations, and capital requirements," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-99.
    7. Klaus Duellmann & Jonathan Küll & Michael Kunisch, 2010. "Estimating asset correlations from stock prices or default rates - which method is superior?," Post-Print hal-00736734, HAL.
    8. Duellmann, Klaus & Küll, Jonathan & Kunisch, Michael, 2010. "Estimating asset correlations from stock prices or default rates--Which method is superior?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2341-2357, November.
    9. Mager, Ferdinand & Schmieder, Christian, 2008. "Stress testing of real credit portfolios," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,17, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Düllmann, Klaus & Kunisch, Michael & Küll, Jonathan, 2008. "Estimating asset correlations from stock prices or default rates: which method is superior?," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,04, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Byström, Hans, 2016. "The Currency Composition of Firms' Balance Sheets and its Effect on Asset Value Correlations and Capital Requirements," Working Papers 2016:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    12. Mikael Juselius & Nikola Tarashev, 2022. "When uncertainty decouples expected and unexpected losses," BIS Working Papers 995, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Schmidt, Rafael & Schmieder, Christian, 2009. "Modelling dynamic portfolio risk using risk drivers of elliptical processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 229-244, April.
    14. Nikola Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2007. "Measuring portfolio credit risk: modelling versus calibration errors," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    15. Chamizo, Álvaro & Fonollosa, Alexandre & Novales, Alfonso, 2019. "Forward-looking asset correlations in the estimation of economic capital," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 264-288.
    16. Nikola Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Specification and Calibration Errors in Measures of Portfolio Credit Risk: The Case of the ASRF Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 129-173, June.
    17. Nikola A. Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2007. "Modelling and calibration errors in measures of portfolio credit risk," BIS Working Papers 230, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset correlations; sector concentration; credit portfolio risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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