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When uncertainty decouples expected and unexpected losses

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  • Juselius, Mikael
  • Tarashev, Nikola A.

Abstract

A parsimonious extension of a well-known portfolio credit-risk model allows us to study a salient stylized fact - abrupt switches between high- and low-loss phases - from a risk-management perspective. As uncertainty about phase switches increases, expected losses decouple from unexpected losses, which reflect a high percentile of the loss distribution. Banks that ignore this decoupling have shortfalls of loss-absorbing resources, which is more detrimental if the portfolio is more diversified within a phase. Likewise, the risk-management benefits of improving phase-switch forecasts increase with diversification. The analysis of these findings leads us to an empirical method for comparing the degree of within-phase default clustering across portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Juselius, Mikael & Tarashev, Nikola A., 2022. "When uncertainty decouples expected and unexpected losses," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2022, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2022_004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expected loss provisioning; Bank capital; Unexpected losses; Credit cycles; Portfolio credit risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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