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Specification and Calibration Errors in Measures of Portfolio Credit Risk: The Case of the ASRF Model

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  • Nikola Tarashev

    (Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements)

  • Haibin Zhu

    (Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements)

Abstract

This paper focuses on the asymptotic single-risk-factor (ASRF) model in order to analyze the impact of specification and calibration errors on popular measures of portfolio credit risk. Violations of key assumptions of this model are found to be virtually inconsequential, especially for large, welldiversified portfolios. By contrast, flaws in the calibrated interdependence of credit risk across exposures, caused by plausible small-sample estimation errors or rule-of-thumb values of asset return correlations, can lead to significant inaccuracies in measures of portfolio credit risk. Similar inaccuracies arise under standard assumptions regarding the tails of the distribution of asset returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikola Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Specification and Calibration Errors in Measures of Portfolio Credit Risk: The Case of the ASRF Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 129-173, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2008:q:2:a:4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Loffler, Gunter, 2003. "The effects of estimation error on measures of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1427-1453, August.
    6. Lütkebohmert, Eva & Gordy, Michael B., 2007. "Granularity adjustment for Basel II," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Düllmann, Klaus & Scheicher, Martin & Schmieder, Christian, 2007. "Asset correlations and credit portfolio risk: an empirical analysis," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Susanne Emmer & Dirk Tasche, 2003. "Calculating credit risk capital charges with the one-factor model," Papers cond-mat/0302402, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2005.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kao, Lie-Jane, 2015. "A portfolio-invariant capital allocation scheme penalizing concentration risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 560-570.
    2. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    3. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
    4. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 193-205.
    5. Chalermchatvichien, Pichaphop & Jumreornvong, Seksak & Jiraporn, Pornsit, 2014. "Basel III, capital stability, risk-taking, ownership: Evidence from Asia," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 28-46.
    6. Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 2012. "Granularity adjustment for default risk factor model with cohorts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1464-1477.
    7. Yan, Meilan & Hall, Maximilian J.B. & Turner, Paul, 2012. "A cost–benefit analysis of Basel III: Some evidence from the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-82.
    8. Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2014. "Forecasting Mortgage Securitization Risk Under Systematic Risk and Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(3), pages 563-586, September.
    9. Tarashev, Nikola, 2010. "Measuring portfolio credit risk correctly: Why parameter uncertainty matters," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2065-2076, September.
    10. Drehmann, Mathias & Tarashev, Nikola, 2013. "Measuring the systemic importance of interconnected banks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 586-607.
    11. Lee, Yongwoong & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2016. "Accuracy of mortgage portfolio risk forecasts during financial crises," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 440-456.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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