Specification and Calibration Errors in Measures of Portfolio Credit Risk: The Case of the ASRF Model
This paper focuses on the asymptotic single-risk-factor (ASRF) model in order to analyze the impact of specification and calibration errors on popular measures of portfolio credit risk. Violations of key assumptions of this model are found to be virtually inconsequential, especially for large, welldiversified portfolios. By contrast, flaws in the calibrated interdependence of credit risk across exposures, caused by plausible small-sample estimation errors or rule-of-thumb values of asset return correlations, can lead to significant inaccuracies in measures of portfolio credit risk. Similar inaccuracies arise under standard assumptions regarding the tails of the distribution of asset returns.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005.
"Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2004. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit-Default Swap Market," NBER Working Papers 10418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jose A. Lopez, 2002.
"The empirical relationship between average asset correlation, firm probability of default and asset size,"
Working Paper Series
2002-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Lopez, Jose A., 2004. "The empirical relationship between average asset correlation, firm probability of default, and asset size," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 265-283, April.
- Masschelein, Nancy & Düllmann, Klaus, 2006. "Sector concentration in loan portfolios and economic capital," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Gordy, Michael B., 2000.
"A comparative anatomy of credit risk models,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
- Michael S. Gibson, 2004. "Understanding the risk of synthetic CDOs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Düllmann, Klaus & Scheicher, Martin & Schmieder, Christian, 2007. "Asset correlations and credit portfolio risk: an empirical analysis," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Susanne Emmer & Dirk Tasche, 2003. "Calculating credit risk capital charges with the one-factor model," Papers cond-mat/0302402, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2005.
- Samuel Hanson & M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann, 2005.
"Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1531, CESifo Group Munich.
- Hanson, Samuel G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Firm heterogeneity and credit risk diversification," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 583-612, September.
- Loffler, Gunter, 2003. "The effects of estimation error on measures of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1427-1453, August.
- Lütkebohmert, Eva & Gordy, Michael B., 2007. "Granularity adjustment for Basel II," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2008:q:2:a:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.