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The pricing of portfolio credit risk

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  • Nikola A. Tarashev
  • Haibin Zhu

Abstract

Equity and credit-default-swap (CDS) markets are in disagreement as to the extent to which asset returns co-move across firms. This suggests market segmentation and casts ambiguity about the asset-return correlations underpinning observed prices of portfolio credit risk. The ambiguity could be eliminated by – currently unavailable – data that reveal the market valuation of low-probability/large-impact events. At present, judicious assumptions about this valuation can be used to reconcile observed prices with asset-return correlations implied by either equity or CDS markets. These conclusions are based on an analysis of tranche spreads of a popular CDS index, which incorporate a rather small premium for correlation risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikola A. Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2006. "The pricing of portfolio credit risk," BIS Working Papers 214, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:214
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    7. Haibin Zhu, 2006. "An Empirical Comparison of Credit Spreads between the Bond Market and the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 211-235, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Claudio Borio, 2007. "Change and Constancy in the Financial System: Implications for Financial Distress and Policy," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Jeremy Lawson (ed.),The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    3. Daniel Dimitrov & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2022. "Quantifying Systemic Risk in the Presence of Unlisted Banks: Application to the Dutch Financial Sector," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-034/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Malgorzata Olszak, 2012. "Macroprudential policy - aim, instruments and institutional architecture (Polityka ostroznosciowa w ujêciu makro - cel, instrumenty i architektura instytucjonalna)," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 10(39), pages 7-32.
    5. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 193-205.
    6. Daniel Dimitrov & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2023. "Macroprudential Regulation: A Risk Management Approach," Working Papers 765, DNB.
    7. Hayette Gatfaoui, 2010. "Investigating the dependence structure between credit default swap spreads and the U.S. financial market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 511-535, October.
    8. Palombini, Edgardo, 2009. "Factor models and the credit risk of a loan portfolio," MPRA Paper 20107, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Nikola Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Specification and Calibration Errors in Measures of Portfolio Credit Risk: The Case of the ASRF Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 129-173, June.
    10. Nikola A. Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2007. "Modelling and calibration errors in measures of portfolio credit risk," BIS Working Papers 230, Bank for International Settlements.

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    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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