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Sectoral risk assessment with particular emphasis on export enterprises in Poland

Author

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  • Natalia Nehrebecka

    (Warsaw University – Faculty of Economic Sciences, D³uga 44/50, 00-241 Warsaw, Poland. National Bank of Poland, Œwiêtokrzyska 11/21, 00-919 Warszawa)

Abstract

The article presents a methodological framework for the analysis of sectoral risk and an evaluation of the financial condition on sectors level. In addition, the hypothesis was verified that the financial constraints of enterprises affect decisions making by prospective exporters and sales in foreign markets. The empirical analysis was based on the individual data from different sources (from the years 2005 to 2016), which are: balance sheet and profit and loss account (Statistical Office), financial and behavioural data. The evaluation consists of two parts. The first part presents the financial strength depending on the net value of enterprises. The financial strength defines the financial capacity of enterprise. The second part presents Probability of Default (PD) model. The statistical model is built on logistic regression model, and produces an estimate of the annual PD of the assessed company. Based on the results of the evaluation of the risk associated with the financial condition of enterprises, it was found that SMEs faced a higher risk. The lowest risk of bankruptcy was observed in the pharmaceutical industry and the highest risk of bankruptcy – in the mining sector. Exporters were characterised by better financial equipment.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalia Nehrebecka, 2018. "Sectoral risk assessment with particular emphasis on export enterprises in Poland," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(2), pages 677-700.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:36:y:2018:i:2:p:677-700
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Natalia Nehrebecka, 2021. "Internal Credit Risk Models and Digital Transformation: What to Prepare for? An Application to Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 719-736.
    2. Iuliia S. Pinkovetskaia & Anton V. Lebedev & Irina V. Gruznova & Igor V. Balynin, 2020. "Catastrophic Business Risk: Data From the Russian Regions," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 16(3), pages 83-92.
    3. Natalia Nehrebecka, 2021. "Climate Risk with Particular Emphasis on the Relationship with Credit-Risk Assessment: What We Learn from Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Natalia Nehrebecka, 2023. "Distribution of credit-risk concentration in particular sectors of the economy, and economic capital before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 129-158, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sectoral risk; bankruptcy risk; scoring methods; export;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

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