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A coherent framework for stress-testing

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  • Jeremy Berkowitz

Abstract

In recent months and years both practitioners and regulators have embraced the ideal of supplementing VaR estimates with \"stress-testing\". Risk managers are beginning to place an emphasis and expend resources on developing more and better stress-tests. In the present paper, we hold the standard approach to stress-testing up to a critical light. The current practice is to stress-test outside the basic risk model. Such an approach yields two sets of forecasts -- one from the stress-tests and one from the basic model. The stress scenarios, conducted outside the model, are never explicitly assigned probabilities. As such, there is no guidance as to the importance or revelance of the results of stress-tests. Moreover, how to combine the two forecasts into a usable risk metric is not known. Instead, we suggest folding the stress-tests into the risk model, thereby requiring all scenarios to be assigned probabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy Berkowitz, 1999. "A coherent framework for stress-testing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeremy Berkowitz, 1999. "Evaluating the forecasts of risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
    3. Brian H. Boyer & Michael S. Gibson & Mico Loretan, 1997. "Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations," International Finance Discussion Papers 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Younes Bensalah, 2000. "Steps in Applying Extreme Value Theory to Finance: A Review," Staff Working Papers 00-20, Bank of Canada.
    2. Wanbing Zhang & Sisi Zhang & Peibiao Zhao, 2019. "On Double Value at Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Colin Ellis, 2017. "Scenario-based stress tests: are they painful enough?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 11(2), June.
    4. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306.
    5. Mr. Martin Cihak, 2007. "Introduction to Applied Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2007/059, International Monetary Fund.
    6. W. Scott Frame & Lawrence J. White, 2009. "Technological Change, Financial Innovation, and Diffusion in Banking," Working Papers 09-03, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    7. Pompella Maurizio & Dicanio Antonio, 2016. "Bank Vulnerability and Financial Soundness Testing: The Bank Resilience Index," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 95(3), pages 52-63, December.
    8. Guoyin Li & Alfred Ma & Ting Pong, 2014. "Robust least square semidefinite programming with applications," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 347-379, June.
    9. Alexander N. Bogin & Nataliya Polkovnichenko & William M. Doerner, 2015. "Additional Market Risk Shocks: Prepayment Uncertainty and Option-Adjusted Spreads," FHFA Staff Working Papers 15-03, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    10. Michael Jacobs, 2016. "Stress Testing and a Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Scenario Generation," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(6), pages 1-7.
    11. Rosella Giacometti & Domenico Mignacca, 2010. "Using the Black and Litterman framework for stress test analysis in asset management," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(4), pages 286-297, October.
    12. Allan Brace & Mark Lauer & Milo Rado, 2008. "A Stylised Model for Extreme Shocks: Four Moments of the Apocalypse," Research Paper Series 224, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    13. Vazquez, Francisco & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Souto, Marcos, 2012. "A macro stress test model of credit risk for the Brazilian banking sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 69-83.
    14. Basu, Sanjay, 2011. "Comparing simulation models for market risk stress testing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 329-339, August.
    15. Martin Cihak, 2004. "Stress Testing: A Review of Key Concepts," Research and Policy Notes 2004/02, Czech National Bank.
    16. Alexander, Carol & Sheedy, Elizabeth, 2008. "Developing a stress testing framework based on market risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2220-2236, October.
    17. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2014. "Stress Testing Engineering: the real risk measurement?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00951593, HAL.
    18. Gonzalo Cortazar & Alejandro Bernales & Diether Beuermann, 2005. "Methodology and Implementation of Value-at-Risk Measures in Emerging Fixed-Income Markets with Infrequent Trading," Finance 0512030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. So, Mike K.P. & Wong, Jerry & Asai, Manabu, 2013. "Stress testing correlation matrices for risk management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 310-322.
    20. Matthias Meyer & Cathérine Grisar & Felix Kuhnert, 2011. "The impact of biases on simulation-based risk aggregation: modeling cognitive influences on risk assessment," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 79-105, September.
    21. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2014. "Stress Testing Engineering: the real risk measurement?," Post-Print halshs-00951593, HAL.
    22. Giuseppe Montesi & Giovanni Papiro, 2018. "Bank Stress Testing: A Stochastic Simulation Framework to Assess Banks’ Financial Fragility †," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-54, August.
    23. Shouyang Wang & Zhenquan Wang & Jing Zhang, 2003. "Stress testing analysis of the effects of Japanese yen's depreciation on Chinese exports," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 185-190.

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    Keywords

    Risk management; Risk assessment;

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