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Stress-testing U.S. bank holding companies: a dynamic panel quantile regression approach

  • Francisco B. Covas
  • Ben Rump
  • Egon Zakrajsek

We propose an econometric framework for estimating capital shortfalls of bank holding companies (BHCs) under pre-specified macroeconomic scenarios. To capture the nonlinear dynamics of bank losses and revenues during periods of financial stress, we use a fixed effects quantile autoregressive (FE-QAR) model with exogenous macroeconomic covariates, an approach that delivers a superior out-of-sample forecasting performance compared with the standard linear framework. According to the out-of-sample forecasts, the realized net charge-offs during the 2007-09 crisis are within the multi-step-ahead density forecasts implied by the FE-QAR model, but they are frequently outside the density forecasts generated using the corresponding linear model. This difference reflects the fact that the linear specification substantially underestimates loan losses, especially for real estate loan portfolios. Employing the macroeconomic stress scenario used in CCAR 2012, we use the density forecasts generated by the FE-QAR model to simulate capital shortfalls for a panel of large BHCs. For almost all institutions in the sample, the FE-QAR model generates capital shortfalls that are considerably higher than those implied by its linear counterpart, which suggests that our approach has the potential for detecting emerging vulnerabilities in the financial system.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2013-55.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-55
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  1. Marcella Lucchetta & Gianni De Nicoló, 2012. "Systemic Real and Financial Risks; Measurement, Forecasting, and Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 12/58, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Martin Cihák, 2007. "Introduction to Applied Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 07/59, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," 2009 Meeting Papers 514, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Ricardo Schechtman & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2011. "Macro Stress Testing of Credit Risk Focused on the Tails," Working Papers Series 241, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  5. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Luiz Renato Lima, 2012. "Constructing Density Forecasts from Quantile Regressions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1589-1607, December.
  6. Sorge, Marco & Virolainen, Kimmo, 2006. "A comparative analysis of macro stress-testing methodologies with application to Finland," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 113-151, June.
  7. William B. English & William R. Nelson, 1998. "Profits and balance sheet developments at U.S. commercial banks in 1997," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 391-419.
  8. Beverly Hirtle & Til Schuermann & Kevin Stiroh, 2009. "Macroprudential supervision of financial institutions: lessons from the SCAP," Staff Reports 409, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. González-Rivera, Gloria & Yoldas, Emre, 2012. "Autocontour-based evaluation of multivariate predictive densities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 328-342.
  10. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment," Cahiers de recherche 1324, CIRPEE.
  11. Rodrigo Alfaro & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Macro stress tests and crises: what can we learn?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  12. Jonah B. Gelbach & Doug Miller, 2009. "Robust Inference with Multi-way Clustering," Working Papers 99, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  13. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
  14. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
  15. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  16. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249, April.
  17. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  18. Antonella Foglia, 2009. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Survey of Authorities' Aproaches," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 9-45, September.
  19. Koenker, Roger, 2004. "Quantile regression for longitudinal data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 74-89, October.
  20. Lamarche, Carlos, 2010. "Robust penalized quantile regression estimation for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 396-408, August.
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