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The information value of the stress test and bank opacity

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We investigate whether the ?stress test,? the extraordinary examination of the nineteen largest U.S. bank holding companies conducted by federal bank supervisors in 2009, produced the information demanded by the market. Using standard event study techniques, we find that the market had largely deciphered on its own which banks would have capital gaps before the stress test results were revealed, but that the market was informed by the size of the gap; given our proxy for the expected gap, banks with larger capital gaps experienced more negative abnormal returns. Our findings suggest that the stress test helped quell the financial panic by producing vital information about banks. Our findings also contribute to the academic literature on bank opacity and the value of government monitoring of banks.

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  • Donald P. Morgan & Stavros Peristiani & Vanessa Savino, 2010. "The information value of the stress test and bank opacity," Staff Reports 460, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:460
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    1. O'Hara, Maureen & Shaw, Wayne, 1990. "Deposit Insurance and Wealth Effects: The Value of Being "Too Big to Fail."," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1587-1600, December.
    2. Beverly Hirtle & Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Supervisory information and the frequency of bank examinations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Apr), pages 1-20.
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    1. Kuo-Wei Hsiao & Zhengyi Jiang, 2015. "The Pre- and Post-Crisis Stress Testing in the Banking Sector — A Literature Review," Global Credit Review (GCR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 77-97.
    2. Flannery, Mark J. & Kwan, Simon H. & Nimalendran, Mahendrarajah, 2013. "The 2007–2009 financial crisis and bank opaqueness," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 55-84.
    3. repec:fip:fedcwp:13-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Dissem, Sonia & Lobez, Frederic, 2020. "Correlation between the 2014 EU-wide stress tests and the market-based measures of systemic risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Joel Shapiro & David Skeie, 2015. "Information Management in Banking Crises," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(8), pages 2322-2363.
    6. Dmitry Orlov & Pavel Zryumov & Andrzej Skrzypacz, 2023. "The Design of Macroprudential Stress Tests," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(11), pages 4460-4501.
    7. Alvarez, Fernando & Barlevy, Gadi, 2021. "Mandatory disclosure and financial contagion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    8. Covas, Francisco B. & Rump, Ben & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2014. "Stress-testing US bank holding companies: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 691-713.
    9. Jungherr, Joachim, 2018. "Bank opacity and financial crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 157-176.
    10. Gary Gorton, 2015. "Stress for Success: A Review of Timothy Geithner's Financial Crisis Memoir," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(4), pages 975-995, December.
    11. Petrella, Giovanni & Resti, Andrea, 2013. "Supervisors as information producers: Do stress tests reduce bank opaqueness?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5406-5420.
    12. Mark Flood & Jonathan Katz & Stephen Ong & Adam Smith, 2013. "Cryptography and the Economics of Supervisory Information: Balancing Transparency and Confidentiality," Working Papers 13-08, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    13. Acharya, Viral V. & Berger, Allen N. & Roman, Raluca A., 2018. "Lending implications of U.S. bank stress tests: Costs or benefits?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 58-90.
    14. Vives, Xavier & Cespa, Giovanni, 2011. "Expectations, Liquidity, and Short-term Trading," CEPR Discussion Papers 8303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Li Lian Ong & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 2014. "Credibility and Crisis Stress Testing," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-67, February.
    16. Peter V. Egly & David W. Johnk & André Varella Mollick, 2018. "Bank net interest margins, the yield curve, and the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 12-32, January.
    17. Stefano Miani & Josanco Floreani & Andrea Paltrinieri, 2018. "Do Capital Adequacy and Credit Quality Affect Systematic Risk? Investigation of a Sample of European Listed Banks in Light of EBA Stress Tests," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 1-31, December.
    18. Durrani, Agha & Ongena, Steven & Ponte Marques, Aurea, 2024. "Decoding market reactions: The certification role of EU-wide stress tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    19. Durrani, Agha & Ongena, Steven & Ponte Marques, Aurea, 2022. "The certification role of the EU-wide stress testing exercises in the stock market. What can we learn from the stress tests (2014-2021)?," Working Paper Series 2711, European Central Bank.
    20. Sahin, Cenkhan & de Haan, Jakob & Neretina, Ekaterina, 2020. "Banking stress test effects on returns and risks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    21. Quijano, Margot, 2014. "Information asymmetry in US banks and the 2009 bank stress test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 203-205.

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    Keywords

    Bank capital; bank examinations; Bank holding companies; Risk assessment;
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